[anfogoat]

Assist doesn't do it for me. I find it near impossible to believe that were Finland attacked, the Central European militaries would be doing anything different from what they're doing now. Assist would equal hand them some equipment and root for them.

[cycomanic]

I think you serialise misinterpret the sentiment in Central Europe. Several people are already seriously considering if more intervention is necessary. However, the fear of nuclear WW3 is keeping that in check. If Putin was to attack attack Finland or Sweden it would be clear to everyone that he is going to continue further and further.

Apart from that, after this war (no matter if he wins or not) the Russian military would be in no state to attack anyone except maybe moldavia. In fact there was a leaked FSB memo just two days ago, which was highly critical of the invasion and estimated that even if they win they would need 500,000 permanently in Ukraine to "keep" it. That is significantly more than half of the active military in russia.

[sterlind]

could you link to the FSB memo? I really want to read it.

that jives with my armchair understanding of Russia's forces as well. they simply don't have the resources to take and hold much more than Ukraine. drafting extra people would be very unpopular. their economy can't handle growing the military, either. they just aren't in the state Germany was when they invaded Poland.

maybe they can threaten nukes, but even if NATO doesn't meet that challenge I can't imagine Russia successfully taking the Baltics with the threat of nukes alone.

[moistly]

Here’s a translation: https://pastebin.com/2agMRGmd