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by typicalset 1560 days ago
> Expanding on that, from 1800 to 1914 the US had zero net inflation. Zero.

This is simply false [1].

[1]: https://www.minneapolisfed.org/about-us/monetary-policy/infl...

1 comments

Don't overlook the word "net".

Also, I don't mean exactly zero. It's an inconsequential difference spread out over more than a century compared with 1914 to today.

How do you explain the historically near all-time-low inflation rates from 2009-2021 despite colossal amounts of deficit spending and quantitative easing (pick a 10-year period if you prefer)?
That is a great question, and it has stumped a lot of people. Some people regard it as proof that economic laws are different now.

My take on it is that it's like physics - if you conduct an experiment and determine that the laws of physics don't apply, you've either made a mistake or our understanding of physics is all wrong. Which is much more likely?

My take on the 2009-2021 not causing huge inflation is there was something else going on. Two possibilities:

1. quantitative easing deferred the inflation to the future. There's been a lot of talk in the last few months about it putting the whole financial system onto another precipice.

2. That it did cause inflation - it's just that it compensated for massive deflation caused by the banking collapses.

Or maybe the 25% inflation we see today is just a delayed effect.

(Yes, I know the official rate is 7.5%. But everything I buy seems to have gone up 25%.)