[TearsInTheRain]

> The government has been in deficit spending for a long time without much inflation

There was still inflation due to the deficit spending. Just because inflation was low doesnt mean it wouldnt have been lower without the deficit spending

[8note]

I'm not saying there isn't a component, but you could not predict the current inflation rate based on continued deficit spending

[bko]

A lot of people predicted it. It's not a novel concept that if you increase the money supply by 25% in one year, you risk seeing a rise in prices. We saw this first on asset prices. During the most uncertain and scariest time of the pandemic where we had no idea if the world was going to end, the stock market rose significantly above pre-covid levels. Later on many, including myself, thought there was a good chance it'll spread to consumer prices. I wrote a whole series about this starting on April 2, 2021

The fed should have predicted this as its pretty textbook economics. But they won't be held to account and working class people will pay the price through higher prices and lower wages. Then the remedy will be higher interest rates and a risk of higher unemployment and economic stagnation,

[0] https://mleverything.substack.com/p/where-did-the-12-trillio...

[bryanlarsen]

And economists have predicted 8 of the last 3 recessions. I'm sorry, I've been hearing inflation predictions for 40 years now. You can only cry wolf so many times. Was there anybody who said we wouldn't get inflation in 2008 but would in 2021? If so I'll listen to them.

The Fed has caused many recessions in the last 40 years because they prematurely raised interest rates because they were scared of the inflation boogeyman.

I believe the Fed is doing a fabulous job threading the needle between inflation and recession in a very challenging, no right answer environment.