The more EVs penetrate the market the less vulnerable we are to oil price spikes. Oil has been the rate limiting reagent of our civilization. That is ending.
I feel like EV market penetration would need to be pretty insane for a society to be less vulnerable to oil price spikes. For context the US is around 5% EV penetration currently. I don't think that number includes recreational vehicles like RVs, motor boats, motorcycles, ATVs, 4x4s, etc. (most with 0% EV penetration).
But then you have the aspect of electricity generation. Did you know that the US currently generates 4 times as much electricity from oil as most renewables only excluding nuclear (hydro, solar, wind).
Our society is steeped in oil, it's beyond cheap, and there's no indication it's ending any time soon.
Did you know that the US currently generates 4 times as much electricity from oil as most renewables only excluding nuclear (hydro, solar, wind).
This is incorrect. As of 2021 the United States generated about 0.5% of its electricity from petroleum. It generated 9.2% from wind, 6.3% from hydro, and 2.8% from solar.
I know this is sarcasm but for those people with big pickup trucks (I should say vanity trucks, not real work machines), you’re looking at 26 gallon tanks @ 4.20/gallon. If they’re doing that once a week (conservatively) plus a presumably large truck payment, they could more than pay for a Tesla all other things aside. I personally lease a Kona Electric which after rebates and incentives costs me ~$350 a month
+1 It's been almost two decades since the last spike, five since the oil crisis of the 70s. If you're buying 50k plus gas guzzlers, and then get squeezed when gas prices are going up, it's almost self inflicted by now. So many alternatives: electrics, small frugal cars, carpooling, telecommuting, ... Can't believe USA is still incentivizing this madness.
No, my comment was that there's no counter-pressure to prevent people from buying gas-guzzlers, oversized SUVs and trucks and the like, that will be around for 10-20 years, and will continue to drive wasteful demand for gas. When prices rise, it's felt disproportionally in our wallets, because US's carpark are gas guzzlers on the average.
That's only possible because the negative externalities are not priced in.
You can get from point A-B in supreme comfort, in cars that cost half that, or that have twice the mileage. The reason cars are instead bloated and have low mileage is because of American's fetishization of size, and the ratchet of the safety arms race. To break out of this tragedy of the commons, the tax-code needs to incentivize smaller cars, electric cars, flexible work-arrangements, etc... and disincentive larger cars.
And to your point; those stupid poor people (your words) buy used cars, and these used cars were originally the wasteful new cars that the selfish sociopathic rich people (my words) bought.
I have a truck that I got for cheap (under $4k) and never used as my main commuter car back when I was still commuting, but there are some very practical differences between a truck and a Tesla that most people wouldn't want to give up. Mostly in the form of cargo capacity and towing capacity. As stuff like the cybertruck and f-150 lightning trickle down into the used truck market they'll get more affordable to the average Joe, but for now it's out of reach for a lot of people. I do agree with you though that the people out there blowing $40k+ on a vanity truck could definitely go with an electric (or a much cheaper normal pickup)
Yes I don’t mean to target anyone with real uses for a truck, more those using them to commute. I personally find myself wanting one all the time as a homeowner but can’t seem to justify it personally for the two or three times a year I would actually use it!
It's an entire economy. When someone else buys a Tesla, oil demand is rendered less inelastic. This also primes the market so that more EVs get sold, including cheaper ones, and eventually used EVs become available at a much lower price.
You can get a used Nissan Leaf for <$10K now in good condition with enough range for most commuter needs, and those things are super reliable and require virtually no maintenance.
I guess we should not do anything if it can't immediately be made affordable to everyone in the very first generation. So we should never have done ocean travel, air travel, non-emergency medicine, higher education, personal computers, ...
so what you are saying is you are in favor of trickle-down economics? - where people who make $300K+ a year, buy government subsidized Tesla's, and somehow, somewhere, the poor single mother who now has decide between filling her car to get to work, and buying food - will somehow benefit from wealthy tech-bros driving $100K cars.
I agree that current inequality is excessive, but the argument I made applies if there is any inequality at all. There has never been a human society with absolutely zero inequality. If there is any inequality at all there is always some "trickle down" effect in the form of aftermarkets, priming of industrial production leading to future lower prices, etc.
It's possible to simultaneously acknowledge certain "trickle down" effects and believe they can be beneficial while also being in favor of reducing inequality.
No, EVs are not just Teslas. As far as I can see in The Netherlands, EVs are penetrating the market very fast. Sure, it will begin with people who can afford the upfront costs with an eye on operational cost savings. But, it will only be a matter of time before the economies of scale applies and the value of an electric car with substantially lower operational costs become the better choice for those with current gas guzzlers(including me).
I am not running out to buy an EV now because I have a car which is a tool that works fine, and the alternative is more expensive. However, in a few years when I am in the market to replace my car, the EVs will be much more attractive when I calculate the total cost of ownership.
In the EU, the DACIA Spring is sold at 20 to 18k€ before all the government credits. You can get this urban electric car for less than 12k€ with the government credits.
Yes this is a very simple car, but this is now less expensive than a similar gasoline car.
the idea is that the EV market will continue to slide towards entry price. the used EVs market should follow suit, so, those poor people would also have the choice to replace their fossil fuel vehicle with an EV to avoid being at the mercy of oil prices.
not that I think the theoretical reasoning will work, but it is at least plausible, and not only for consumer vehicles.
But then you have the aspect of electricity generation. Did you know that the US currently generates 4 times as much electricity from oil as most renewables only excluding nuclear (hydro, solar, wind).
Our society is steeped in oil, it's beyond cheap, and there's no indication it's ending any time soon.