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by danbruc 1567 days ago
I think the gap in the usage of active measures is easily explained. As I said, the documentary starts before the dissolution of the USSR, this was the Cold War, no surprise that such methods were used. After that there were relatively good relationships between Russia and the West, certainly into the early 2000s and Putins first term. Look at the Partnership for Peace map [1], there was a chance to unite all of Eurasia with NATO. This didn't work out, as far as I can tell it was a pretty complicated situation with all the fallout after the collapse of the USSR. The USA, or at least some circles, probably also viewed such unification efforts as a threat that would diminish US influence and power.

I guess things really went south post 9/11 when the USA really used its power without accountability. In its 2007 speech at the Munich Security Conference he is frustrate with how the USA acts, how it ignores the UN which he considers the only legitimate entity to decide over military interventions. He complains that the USA wants a unipolar world order. Then in 2008 the Bucharest Declaration opens the way for Ukraine and Georgia to become NATO members and this crosses the red line. It had of course been crossed before with the Baltic states but Russia still swallowed that.

Russia intervenes in Georgia in 2008. And in the active measures documentary you see some dates from the time after 2008, the good relations with the West are over. But the vast majority of examples in the documentary are actually from after 2014, when the the pro-Russian Yanukovych government, that had essentially suspended seeking a NATO membership, was replaced and a NATO membership became a priority again. He annexed Crimea, intervened in eastern Ukraine, and stepped up active measures. He was now somewhat running out of time, Ukraine becoming a NATO member was unacceptable to him but there was no indication that anyone would care.

By keeping Ukraine in conflict in Donbas he could prevent a NATO membership for some time, but it would probably only be a matter of time until Ukraine would become powerful enough to take back eastern Ukraine. And once Ukraine would become a NATO member, he would have to face NATO instead of Ukraine. And this would probably also mean that it would be likely that he will lose the strategically important naval base in Sevastopol on Crimea.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partnership_for_Peace#/media/F...