[mindslight]

How does that passage disagree with what I said? By my reading, he acknowledges it only to write it off.

The problem isn't the "realist" analysis itself. It's that such analysis is being held up as a one-sided normative description to affect the actions of the larger might-makes-might of US/NATO. Applying the same standard to both - either we judge the moral merits of Ukrainian self-determination vs Russian conquering or EU/NATO is right to expand simply because they have the might to.