[dpratt]

If you want to achieve victory, you must understand your enemy as well as yourself. The Russian attitude towards NATO expansion into Ukraine can be roughly viewed from an American perspective as well equivalent as the old Warsaw Pact attempting to bring Mexico into their treaty. Or, at least, this is part of the explanation used to frame it as an ‘existential threat’ for Russia. This, combined with a somewhat precarious economy based largely on fossil fuel exports and the fact that in some sense Putin serves at the pleasure of the group of oligarchs, and only as long as they can earn. This combo of circumstance makes it pretty easy to guess at how we got here, and frankly how easy it was to provoke. Unfortunately for Putin, and fortunate for pretty much everybody else, at this point, it appears that outside of complete and total victory and annexation of Ukraine, it looks like he loses no matter what.

Putin is a ham-fisted dictator, and the world will be better off without him, but his motivations here aren’t mysterious.

[labster]

How would annexation of Ukraine further Russia’s strategic goals at this point? NATO expansion is getting more popular by the hour, as is joining the EU. Economic sanctions weaken Russia, and will continue for years to decades if Ukraine is annexed. Sure, the Russian army can get total victory given enough time, but winning the war doesn’t benefit Russia.

[ethbr0]

Moscow from Ukraine border: ~520 km

Moscow from Latvian border: ~620 km

Not to mention full control of a Black Sea (and therefore entrance to Mediterranean) coastline with multiple ports. As well as a major agricultural products. As well as a huge transit country for Russian energy pipelines.

[labster]

What does slightly more access to the Mediterranean get you when no European country will buy your goods? All of those things you mentioned are worthless without buyers.

Except the farm land. But it’s not 1444 — trade is vastly more profitable than agriculture nowadays.

[ethbr0]

IMHO, Putin is looking at this from a century perspective. I.e. in a hundred years, the sanctions will be gone, Europe will be trading with Russia again, and Russia will still have the land.

[labster]

Cool story ethbro

It’s for the gas pipelines, but 100 year perspective. Sure.

[ethbr0]

And your counterargument is?

[yks]

good luck keeping Ukraine after what is happening now past the death of Putin

[watwut]

I dont think this take advances understanding of Russia. This is how Americans sees the world. Americans are not trying to make America larger, therefore they will project same lack of wish to get larger on Russia.