| There's a relevant joke, you've probably heard it before: ----- A guy walking along the beach finds a bottle. He pulls out the cork, and a genie appears and tells him he has three wishes. "But," the genie says, "I have to warn you, whatever you receive, your worst enemy will get twice as much as you." "OK," says the guy, "first, I want ten million dollars." The genie grants the wish and reminds him that his worst enemy now has twenty million dollars. "Next wish, I want a thirty-room mansion in the Bahamas." The genie builds the mansion for him, and lets him know that his worst enemy now has a home twice as big. "Fine. For the last wish," the guy picks up a big stick and hands it to the genie, "beat me HALF to death." ----- The countries that trade with China can survive 15-25% of their trade evaporating, albeit with some pain. Maybe less than we think - most of what China exports is available from other nations. On the other hand, China's economy cannot weather 80% of its trade market disappearing. I certainly hope it never comes to this. Military adventurism in Taiwan could trigger it. Mass civilian casualties in Ukraine could trigger more severe "no trade with anyone that trades with Russia" sanctions. I'd like to think that the Chinese would be just as disgusted as we would be and join the coalition voluntarily, but who knows. |
This is true in food, this is true in semiconductors.