[ukraineally]

Lets not forgot pushing themselves into the arms of China who ideologically hates them. They hold Manchuria... if the '1 china policy' is such a big deal... shouldn't they want manchuria back asap?

How the hell is Russia and China allied at all? China is basically the one protecting Russia and allowing them to invade Ukraine.

[howmayiannoyyou]

Nope. China and Russia share an oligarchic & mercantilistic ideology. They share a common adversary. They are economically interdependent. They conduct military exercises together. The countries support each other diplomatically. One even wonders if the West's preferred outcome is regime change in Moscow that weakens the Sino-Russian relationship.

[ukraineally]

>Nope. China and Russia share an oligarchic & mercantilistic ideology. They share a common adversary. They are economically interdependent. They conduct military exercises together. The countries support each other diplomatically. One even wonders if the West's preferred outcome is regime change in Moscow that weakens the Sino-Russian relationship.

This is something I don't quite understand.

After Crimea happened, nobody really did much. 70-80% of Crimea is Russian and it probably should have been their own republic after USSR fell. However, Ukraine just kind of got to keep that land? It was ultimately a problem. It's fine for Crimea to be self-determining.

NATO has never threatened Russia. A defensive alliance is never a threat. Obviously you only find it a threat if you have plans to invade like they do. Yet China and Russia feel threatened?

Even more unusually... it is NATO who feels threatened. They are worried China and allies are about to invade various entities. Taiwan is the first one, but Japan and South Korea are immediately next. India shortly after. Australia is not long after India. Obviously the USA will be involved in all of those.

Lets also look at the tally card. Russia is the one doing the invade thing. Not anyone else. What has been the response? Everyone united against Russia's aggression. Said, 'no thanks we're out, you can go play with yourself from now on' Where's the threat from us? We ultimately dont care about who is in power. We said, nope, we are closing our borders to you and your trade. We cant ethically or morally support Russia in their actions.

Mind you, who am I? I'm nobody and know nothing. China's own actions will reveal the truth in the near future.

If China truly believes in world peace and the end of cold war mentality. Building tall is far more intelligent than invading for land. It is china's ally right now who is breaking this. It is their ally whose actions are justifying the 'west' to be so defensive and feel threatened.

You know what the west wants? They want the sanctions to work. If such powerful sanctions can cripple a nuclear power's ability to wage war. The threat to the rest of the world is that the same will happen to you if you declare war. It would mean we are post-war. People can feel safe within their borders. Nobody is threatening anyone else anymore.

Sure militaries must still exist. Civil wars, insurgencies, etc are still going to exist. United Nations peacekeeping will always be a thing in the world.

china could lead the way. recognize taiwan as a country within a country. see quebec in canada. Then hold russia up to their diplomatic commitment to ukraine. dispell the rumours they are about to invade and demand immediate peace.

[Azsy]

Just to lay out the Russian side.

There are two primary reasons we think the Russians did it.

Putin has gone full conspiracy theorist, nostalgic, delusions of grandeur, fear of dying. He has locked himself away with alternative history since the start of covid. If Russia wants to defend its borders, capturing Ukraine decrease the length of the borders significantly. In a 100 years who knows? NATO might try to expand.

Personally, i don't see how anybody under the age of 60 can be persuaded with this logic. But it does explain part of the failure so far. Putin beliefs it had to be far easier and cheaper than it turned out so far.

I think the economic reason to do it is far more plausible. Ukraine as a sovereign nation is an existential threat to Gas/Oil Russia. Since 2012 it has become clear that they hold enough gas and shale oil that it would break Russia's monopoly to the EU. That's could half their state budget, in a time the social security for the baby boom needs to be paid out.

I personally think they could have figured it out, but Putin is obsessed with gas and oil. To him they are the foundation of a Great Russia.

[ginko]

>I think the economic reason to do it is far more plausible. Ukraine as a sovereign nation is an existential threat to Gas/Oil Russia. Since 2012 it has become clear that they hold enough gas and shale oil that it would break Russia's monopoly to the EU. That's could half their state budget, in a time the social security for the baby boom needs to be paid out.

That doesn't seem right. The EU is intending to be carbon-neutral by 2050. Recent events probably hugely accelerated this roadmap. Even if they had started building infrastructure now Ukraine's gas fields won't be production ready for quite some time. That leaves them with a 10 year time window where Russia would have to compete for a slice of a dwindling cake.

[mbg721]

Natural gas is a big deal, but so is food; isn't Ukraine a major exporter of wheat? Crimea got Russia the port access they wanted, with few consequences, and this is a time when the West appeared particularly weak.

[howmayiannoyyou]

You may want to expand your thinking on this. I recommend: https://www.hoover.org/research/5-questions-stephen-kotkin

[Azsy]

Well consider me expanded. But id argue my first reason isn't that far off from his take on Putin's goal.

Its a little strange whenever i find media from before the invasion talking about Putins position.

[erdos4d]

> How the hell is Russia and China allied at all? China is basically the one protecting Russia and allowing them to invade Ukraine.

Getting a European war going that draws US forces out of the Pacific is an obvious benefit if you want to invade Taiwan.

[tuyiown]

Chinese government is way more pragmatic, Taiwan is not a fish big enough to cover losses due to international trade disturbance.

[Azsy]

The US is more than capable of winning both and the Chinese know it.

In contrast to the Russians, the Chinese are completely dependent on international trade to keep people fed and the lights on.

[injb]

I don't buy this. Once you get a country in the mood for war, the marginal cost to them of more war gets less and less. In for a penny/in for a pound as they say.

If anything, I bet China has had to think twice about Taiwan after seeing the way the world has reacted to Russia. China has not been tested against a determined, capable enemy and their credibility as a superpower is at stake. They could lose to Taiwan even if no one helps Taiwan.

[luckystarr]

> Lets not forgot pushing themselves into the arms of China who ideologically hates them.

No, they "made up" recently. Russia supports Chinas claim to Taiwan and China supports Russias claims.

This makes the whole situation even more ugly.

[nicce]

This is an oversimplification. China can't support Russia directly for couple of reasons (from Taiwan perspective). Even neutral is a kinda bad.

  * Russia is foreign country, invading other country. China respects sovereignty. Their claims for Taiwan are based on that - Taiwan is not independent according to their narrative. Huge military invasion into Taiwan is against this ideology. It proves that Taiwan was not part of China.

  * If they are OK with invasion of Ukraine, then other countries have arguments for invading China, and help Tibet, Inner Mongolia or Xinjiang to be independent nations. China really does not want that.

Also they remind us all the time, that what happens in the country, happens in the country (China). It is country's business and nobody else should take part for that.

[asoneth]

I'm not sure China is as motivated about the logical consistency of these positions as much as their strategic impact on China. In their defense, most countries only bother holding consistent positions when it is advantageous for them to do so.

As Mao Zedong put it, "political power grows out of the barrel of a gun".

[nicce]

China is authoritarian nation, but they deeply care about public image. And Xi is not crazy.

They need to be logical to maintain the image.

[asoneth]

They certainly engage in public relations efforts to burnish their public image and I agree that Xi is not crazy and would not make that task any more difficult than necessary.

But it does not seem like logical consistency is the driving force of their foreign policy.

[ukraineally]

Oh ya, like I totally dont get the relationships going on in asia. Pakistan, who typically hates Russia, is supporting them? China has a no limit alliance that apparently has limits. The 3 of them are seemingly dunking on India. India used to be good friends with Russia. Then you have border issues between India and China.

[dragonwriter]

> Pakistan, who typically hates Russia, is supporting them

A rival for influence in Central Asia backing you committing to a fight in Europe that aligns the rest of the world strongly against you as long as it persists might not be doing it because they support you in any meaningful sense of the word.

[elorant]

The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Besides Russia has vast natural resources that China needs, until they can go all nuclear.

[Gwypaas]

China is going all renewable, like the rest of the world.

https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/average-annua...