[obsidience]

All IMHO:

The likelihood is that the EU and US will not directly intervene in Ukraine much like we didn't for the last invasions of Crimea and Georgia. Because of the history of the country and it's importance in the world landscape, it's difficult to escalate to a point of a nuclear conflict.

Personally, I would be more worried about Taiwan. Taiwan is similar in that they also maintain their independence from the other country (in this case China), yet (I feel) the world would be willing to go to war over controlling interest in this country, or, at least keeping it independent and neutral. Much of the world's most high tech, complex and expensive chips come from Taiwan and if China or another country would invade this would send shockwaves across the world as everything now is technology that requires many many chips. A country such as the US can't magically create a "fab" without years, if not decades of time investing in on the infrastructure and processes needed to fabricate these highly complex chips.

Historically, hot wars are often about power. This could be due to energy (such as oil and natural gas supplies) but the new power-base is technology. You control the chips that everyone needs, you control the world. Same goes with many other things like the software too but that's another topic.

Here's a good read on the subject: https://time.com/6102879/semiconductor-chip-shortage-tsmc/