[toyg]

There's only so much that you can do to persuade people NOT to upgrade, especially in developing markets like India or South Africa where Nokia is traditionally strong. The rise of the middle-class in those areas will inevitably reduce demand for Nokia "smartphones" (by which they mean Symbian phones, hardly smart but whatever), squeezing their already-low margins on that sector. They would have to be constantly chasing new "poor" markets, which is hard; and they'd further tarnish the brand in traditional markets.

I'm sure they can survive even by just following the current strategy to the bitter end (i.e. becoming Microsoft's bitc-- er, preferred partner). What they cannot do is to grow or even just to stay relevant.