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by whirlaway 1577 days ago
> I wonder if they have given China extra pause in their stance toward Taiwan.

I expect so. But China is a great power, and Russia is only a regional power. It's much easier and cheaper to isolate Russia.

China's claim on Taiwan is 1000x more valid than the Russian claim on Ukraine, and the world would react differently. I say this as someone who likes the RoC, and thinks they have a right to self-determination.

Ultimately, though, China is trying to win the economic and political game. You need a large military to play that game as a great power, but you don't have to actually invade people to exercise military power. And wars are terribly costly when you're trying to modernize infrastructure. Decoupling China from the US would be terribly costly to both sides, while trade is profitable. So they use that to buy a sphere of influence, largely in Africa and South America. Putin is the idiot who still thinks he can invade his way to a sphere of influence, which hasn't really worked out for anyone after the Spanish-American war.

4 comments

> China's claim on Taiwan is 1000x more valid than the Russian claim on Ukraine, and the world would react differently. I say this as someone who likes the RoC, and thinks they have a right to self-determination.

The PRC claim to Taiwan is about as weak as can be. They have after all _never_ ruled the island. The mainland and Taiwan have only been unified (if you can call the 45-49 “unified”) for four years in the last 125 years. Moscow ruled Ukraine up until a generation ago (not that I think that gives Russia any claim to Ukraine).

The PRC’s claim to Taiwan is ludicrous.

The world would react differently to a CCP invasion of Taiwan for sure, but not in the way you imply. It would be a full scale war against US, Japan, Australia, UK at least right away. With the current president, being a democratic country the US people can of course choose an isolationist president and change their policies.
> China's claim on Taiwan is 1000x more valid than the Russian claim on Ukraine

I think you got it backwards: Taiwan's claim on China is more valid - after all, they are the original China unspoiled by the demon of communism.

Sure, in the same way that the confederacy's claim on the south is valid.
In the same way that the North’s claim on the US South is valid. Mainland China is the Confederacy. Taiwan is the Union. Taiwan and the North were the original governments.
Taiwan was a frontier until the Nationalists, losing the civil war to the Communists, fled there. Taiwan has never been the government of China. Are you saying the Nationalists were the original government of China? They didn't exist as a party until the 20th century and didn't last as a party in mainland China past 1949.

I don't say that to support the CCP - the only legitimate government is one chosen by the Chinese people - but saying "Taiwan and the North were the original governments" is plainly false. The Confuscian emporers, going back 2,000+ years and lasting until ~1911 (with many interruptions), would have by far the best claim on 'original government'.

That's exactly the point – if both countries claim to be the rightful owners of both other countries, they are not really separate countries.
> Taiwan's claim on China is more valid - after all, they are the original China unspoiled by the demon of communism.

I absolutely support the freedom of the people in Taiwan - and of those in all of China, though only the ones in Taiwan have it - but the parent doesn't make sense to me:

What is the "original China"? Imperial, Confucian China, which (including many interruptions) goes back over 2,000 years, and ended in ~1911? The predecessors to imperial China? Neither has anything to do with the Nationalists (who fled to Taiwan when they lost the civil war to the Communists).

> Russia is only a regional power

Which region would that be?

Once I learned their economy is as big as the Benelux, it's even smaller than you can imagine. They are still riding the good old Soviet days.

Their military spending is less than France and Germany combined.

Europe. It has no power in Asia, Africa, Americas.