[theplumber]

I think that if Russia pulls back its troops Ukraine has a bright future. Even if Crimea and the other two regions are lost it will receive more investment than it would have received otherwise. Both the EU and the US want Ukraine to become a succesful EU country.

The Ukrainian people also seem to have a strong will to build/rebuild and defend Ukraine so they are reliable partners unlike the cases we've seen in other countries.

[tromp]

Russia pulling back is more unimaginable now than a Russian invasion was in January.

[ceejayoz]

The US couldn't manage to wipe out the Taliban in Afghanistan, nor prop up its replacement for more than a couple of weeks after two decades of preparation and $2.3 trillion in investment. Ukraine's insurgency would be supplied by allies with deep pockets and modern tech; Russia's occupation would be funded by a sanctioned Russia and the same army that's already struggling to meet their objectives in the early stages.

Russia leaves Ukraine in defeat in at some point in the future. The question is largely how many innocent dead are left in the wake.

[tguvot]

my pet theory that they can't leave ukraine right now because they are stuck. totally messsed up logistics. this giant convoy could run out of supplies/fuel. they maybe literally can't drive out. ukranian drones started to blow up trains with fuel inside russia yesterday and belorusian partisans started to screw with train system in belorussia (for real, they demolished a bunch of control equipment centers. trains can't go anywhere). their communication is shit (https://twitter.com/sbreakintl/status/1498619303717142529?s=...) and some of them simply can't reach command center to get orders

[nine_k]

With a change of the regime in Kremlin, it's quite imaginable.

I suppose that a lot of the Russian elites, locked out of their wealth and prospects, would be more than happy to see and even effect a serious change of the leadership. I hope they have a fair chance.

A huge lot of non-elites would support that, too.

[ignoramous]

How long can Russia hold such a massive country surrounded by NATO allies?

I don't think there's a single scenario where Russia wins.

[bitL]

I am worried they might create an uninhabitable belt on the western borders of Western Ukraine by nuking it with 10-100kT tactical nukes as they don't really care about people of Lviv and around and that would solve also their Polish "friendship" problem. A similar strategy was planned by French in the case of a war with USSR, nuking Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania, so that the USSR army couldn't pass to Western Europe. I think all options are on the table, unfortunately.

[ivan_gammel]

They cannot hold this territory. They will have to.

[baq]

They don’t. They’ll happily raze everything just so Ukrainians can’t defend. Then they’ll equally happily lend money on good interest so they can rebuild.

[arbitrary_name]

You don't think the EU would be motivated to lend at competitive rates in this scenario? If not, i would love to understand your logic.

[refurb]

Lend to a Russia-occupied Ukraine?

[danuker]

> Then they’ll equally happily lend money on good interest so they can rebuild.

Ukraine agreeing to the loan would mean agreeing to debt slavery.

[baq]

Precisely the point.

[nevermindiguess]

What makes you think that the US and EU have any real interest to see Ukraine succeed? Besides believing their platitudes and propaganda, I mean.

[baq]

Thinking like a trader: wheat, corn, iron, coal.

Thinking like a person: no more wars in Europe.