[ccvannorman]

> It's unlikely that they will engage nuclear weapon if the west intervene in Ukraine.

My understanding is that Putin has repeatedly made it painfully clear that that is exactly what he would do if anyone interferes.

[chmod600]

People say stuff. I agree it would be risky to call his bluff, but I'd say it's more like a 10% risk than a 50% risk.

Of course, a 10% chance of destroying the world is beyond my tolerance.

[deltree7]

Except, you completely made up that probability

[chmod600]

Yeah, I mean even Putin doesn't know the real odds.

It probably depends a lot on the exact circumstances/timing. And in the war, circumstances change all the time.

Putin wants us to believe it's a Dr. Strangelove situation, where no humans make a choice and therefore nuclear annihalation is a guarantee if we cross a line. But that's false.

Any line Putin draws can be tested and shifted along various axes: who crosses it, how bad it is for Russia, how egregious the violation is, how well it can be argued that it's not a violation, how long it takes to confirm that a violation has taken place, how certain he is that a violation has taken place, who authorized it, how long it takes to confirm who authorized it, etc.

And we don't know for sure that Putin can unilaterally initiate a world-ending strike without anyone in the chain second-guessing him.

[ceejayoz]

They were pretty clear it was their personal estimate.

What probability of global thermonuclear war would you accept? 10%? 1%? 0.1%?