[lordgrenville]

I think Julia Galef's "scout mentality" can be helpful here. Try to be aware of your biases - do you want this to be true? - and if so, be extra sceptical. Try to consider the possibility of the opposite of what you think being true - what would that look like? And try to assign percentages to your beliefs, instead of booleans. Be prepared to update your views over time as more facts emerge.