[ceilingcorner]

It is really distressing, not only because it’s ethically wrong to blame groups of people for individual actions, but also because it’s pragmatically against the interests of the West. We gain nothing by escalating this.

[throwawayffffas]

Pragmatically I am pretty sure the western logic goes like this. Sanctions will cause economic damage which will lead to misery which will lead to unrest and finally the toppling of the regime. This worked in the 20th century but took like 50 years, and as we can see now the resulting regime is not much better for the west, but I don't think there are any better options. The other approach see China is also slowly blowing up in our collective face, not that it would be an option now.

[pydry]

Pragmatically I think the western military logic is that sacrificing Ukraine to Russia is entirely worthwhile if it breaks Russia too.

They want Russia out of the way so that they can focus on taking down China. Most of all they want to avoid a Russia-China military alliance.

[Cthulhu_]

"We" did not escalate this; Russia did by annexing Crimea in 2014 and invading Ukraine. They could have chosen not to do so and instead focus on building up good international relationships. What did they think they had to gain from annexing neighbouring territory? More control over the Black Sea I guess, but why do they want that control in the first place?

Russia can de-escalate by withdrawing. The only way for 'the west' to de-escalate at this point is to tell Ukraine to just roll over and get annexed. Is that preferable?

And once Russia controls Ukraine, then what? Everybody's happy, and they'll just leave it at that? What is Putin's goals after Ukraine?

I'll admit I'm not educated in international politics, I've just pivoted from an armchair virologist to an armchair politician / military expert on the internets.

[modernpink]

We also have to understand Russia's grievances instead of seeing it in terms of an evil side attacking the good side because it's not that simple. The US would hardly be best pleased if Mexico started receiving arms from China and North Korea right at its border.

[willis936]

What if Mexico received the arms because the US said they were going to topple Mexico's government?

Russia is not justified, which is why there has been such unification in the West and silence from Russia's powerful allies. Putin made a mistake.

[ceilingcorner]

I don’t think anyone is saying that Russia is justified, more that if we want a solution here we have to understand their motivations.

[throwawayffffas]

True, but understanding their motivations goes further than taking their narrative at face value.

The Russian narrative swings from fear of future deployments of American missiles in Ukraine, as if nuclear ballistic submarines can't show up in the Bering sea in a matter of days. And de-nazifaction as if the Kremlin regime is a pillar of freedom and democracy.

Both arguments are rather flimsy at best. It looks to me the main issue is Ukraine's democracy, it looks like the Kremlin cannot tolerate bordering a democracy not run by some kind of autocratic vassal.

It kind of make sense since there is a large Russian/Russian-speaking community in Ukraine. What the Kremlin can't tolerate is a neighbor with greener grass on their side of the fence. Because if the Russian people witnessed a blooming economy and growth in Ukraine after the popular deposition of their then Russian-adjacent president, they might get ideas. So days after the event Russia invaded crimea and labeled the Ukrainian government Nazis.

Simply because the Russian people had to see that popular revolutions only lead to misery.

[dorgo]

And Russia has to understand europe's grievances. You can't invade europe and hope it won't react accordingly.

[bigodbiel]

How was, before this hell, the consensus of the people in Ukraine for a Finland like solution, ceading territory (Crimea), neutrality (non-Nato), but within the EU (won't ask about Minsk agreement, cause I know no one supported it)? I always found this to have been the best option for all sides.

[CRConrad]

> a Finland like solution, ceading territory

Sure, you can advocate using the Winter War robbery of East Carelia and Vyborg from the independent democratic nation of Finland as a model if you want. Two questions about that, though:

1) How much did that help? Didn't exactly sate the Soviet Union's appetite for acquisition and oppression of satellite states, did it?

2) Advocating an appeasement model seems (at least to me) to imply endorsement not only of the temporary calm it might buy, but also of its moral and ethical justice. Care to expound on how you do that?

[jacquesm]

Ukraine was effectively already at war with Russia since 2014, it just got paused without real resolution.

[ceilingcorner]

From Russia’s point of view, they had many reasons to annex Crimea. It wasn’t just a random act of aggression.

Having studied this situation a bit, my conclusion is that both sides are to blame, with Russia being considerably more culpable due to choosing the violent option. Geopolitics isn’t simple and thinking that one side is entirely to blame is just naive and falling for propaganda.

By escalation I’m referring to the giant effort to exclude Russia from everything, including liquor stores and name registrars.

[denis1]

> From Russia’s point of view, they had many reasons to annex Crimea.

Oh they sure did, and all of them were of the militaristic and imperialistic variety.

> Having studied this situation a bit, my conclusion is that both sides are to blame

How can Ukraine/the West possibly be responsible for Russia launching an imperialistic annexation war? Nothing can excuse that.

[ceilingcorner]

It’s a bit too complex to summarize, but if you study NATO’s actions in the region, you’ll see that we helped set up this precarious situation.

Again, as I said in my initial comment, most of the blame here is on Russia. Nonetheless, the world isn’t black and white.

[poushkar]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Putinversteher

[sidibe]

West's reactions is too bad for the Russian people but not reacting would mean they lose credibility and soft power in the future. Putin's previous adventures were not sufficiently reacted too and other countries around the world could see that too.

[jgwil2]

I don't think you can really call this escalation. Escalation would be responding to military force in kind. Instead, the West is is confining itself to economic sanctions and material support. I don't really see how they can do less, frankly, without risking emboldening Putin to strike at Poland or the Baltics (thus involving NATO).

[jacquesm]

But we could do more... if Russia can use 'little green men' then so can we.

[dorgo]

and we do: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/latvia-allows-its-citiz...