How are sanctions going to make anybody more informed?
They dont…That makes no sense. Instead of sanctions, a more effective strategy would be to provide Russians with free VPNs so that they can access western news media.
I'm going to articulate the theory, but I want to be clear that I'm not advocating it.
The general idea is that a war in a foreign country (even a neighbor) is pretty easy to ignore (especially if state media doesn't cover it). If you don't have relative or friends there, you could easily go on believing exactly what the government reports--that it's a limited military operation, etc. You're busy at work, you've got a lot going on, so maybe you should spend some time looking into it, but maybe next week.
However, if the value of your currency drops 25%, and your mortgage interest rate jumps 10% overnight you're much more likely to ask: "what the hell is going on". Those are significant changes that will really impact you. Suddenly you're a lot more motivate to do some research and see what's happening. Maybe when doing that research, you find some of the media of Kyiv being bombed or residential areas in Kharkiv being hit repeatedly by cluster bombs.
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My theory for sanctions is different. My ideal sanctions wouldn't hit the average worker at all. They would hit _only_ the oligarchs and those close to or with a hand on the levers of power. But we don't have access to targeted sanctions that hit the oligarchs hard enough to get them consider taking actions that don't also hit the average worker.
I feel deeply sorry for those Russian citizens who have very limited power over their government, and will nonetheless be hit harder and feel the sanctions more deeply than those closer to power. But I also feel that it's necessary, as a tool to try and minimize the amount of time that Ukraine spends under siege.
Most sanctions are aimed mostly at the oligarchs, and that is good so. But things have reached a point (and may be the sanctions started way to late), at which the whole population needs to be notified of what is going on and it needs to be made clear, that the whole population has a say in how things progress.
The same Russians who are currently using VPNs to post Russian propaganda all over reddit, facebook, twitter and co? If you think Russians are this way just because they don't have access to the guardian, then I have 20 years worth of Russian politics waiting for you. They don't care. They haven't cared when the wars in Chechnya or Georgia happened, they won't care now. The sanctions are supposed to force them to care.
I talk with Russians on several international forums (about architecture and about gaming). Thousands of people there, a big sample. That's the younger, English-speaking generation, BTW.
They believe in the propaganda mostly, celebrate the victories over "nazis" and support Putin.
What happened after Crimea annexation was appealing, and now it's even worse. It's a society brainwashed into imperialism and they want return of Russia as a global power and revenge on the west.
There are some exceptions, but they are rare. Possibly because of fear, I don't know.
They have western media and had for decades. They don't care, it's all lies for them. Also they have almost no influence over what happens. They barely protest and elections are a farce.
So - sanctions aren't targeted at regular Russians. They target the oligarchs that actually run everything in Russia. Regular Russians are hit by collateral damage, and it will be very harsh collateral damage. But I have no sympathy when I hear from my friends in Ukraine hiding in Kyiv metro for the whole weekend and having no contact with their families in shelled towns.
Ultimately the responsibility towards victims of war is more important than unemployed people in invading country.
Russia has been running Goebbels-levels of propaganda to counteract whatever benefit came from access to western media. How much progress has been made since 2014?
Sanctions do work, cutting off communication with the west doesn't. There 's a feeling that Russians need to be jolted off their seats. I m seeing many of them asking for alternatives for payments or incorporation elsewhere
It's a nice thought but I don't think that this would work in any country.
Generally, the sanctions are designed to try and convince Putin that Russia cannot afford a war against Europe/NATO. They do this:
- by targeting the money of Putin and anybody in Russia with enough money to conceivably have influence over Putin (presumably, these sanctions don't hurt common people);
- by targeting directly or indirectly the financial reserves of Russia to make it hard for Russia to bankroll the army (these most certainly do hurt the common people, too).
I'm sure that there are also propaganda/counter-propaganda operations, but these are very likely to be illegal/covert, so no country is going to publicize them.
The general idea is that a war in a foreign country (even a neighbor) is pretty easy to ignore (especially if state media doesn't cover it). If you don't have relative or friends there, you could easily go on believing exactly what the government reports--that it's a limited military operation, etc. You're busy at work, you've got a lot going on, so maybe you should spend some time looking into it, but maybe next week.
However, if the value of your currency drops 25%, and your mortgage interest rate jumps 10% overnight you're much more likely to ask: "what the hell is going on". Those are significant changes that will really impact you. Suddenly you're a lot more motivate to do some research and see what's happening. Maybe when doing that research, you find some of the media of Kyiv being bombed or residential areas in Kharkiv being hit repeatedly by cluster bombs.
---
My theory for sanctions is different. My ideal sanctions wouldn't hit the average worker at all. They would hit _only_ the oligarchs and those close to or with a hand on the levers of power. But we don't have access to targeted sanctions that hit the oligarchs hard enough to get them consider taking actions that don't also hit the average worker.
I feel deeply sorry for those Russian citizens who have very limited power over their government, and will nonetheless be hit harder and feel the sanctions more deeply than those closer to power. But I also feel that it's necessary, as a tool to try and minimize the amount of time that Ukraine spends under siege.