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by hamaluik 1567 days ago
Doesn’t it though? It is in effect part of a larger parcel of sanctions the west is applying to Russia for their actions, and in that light is only one tiny lever; but if enough levers can be applied then I firmly believe there is hope for change for Russia.
1 comments

Turning SWIFT off for Russia does actually hurt the ability of the Russian government to finance its operations. But this action does not, and that was exactly my point.

That aside, there seems to be this popular sentiment that if sanctions hurt your average Russian enough, they will revolt. I don't know why it's so popular given that it never worked out like that in the past. North Korea got to the point where they were literally eating grass in the 90s, and the Kims are still there.

I don't agree, this is another friction to the Russian economy that directly hurts the Russian government's ability and will to continue.

>North Korea got to the point where they were literally eating grass in the 90s, and the Kims are still there.

And Putin's goal is to end up begging China for food?

> And Putin's goal is to end up begging China for food?

I wouldn't be surprised. It will just be branded as something else. Unless China slaps equivalent sanctions, Russia will likely become a Chinese vassal. Future generations of Russians will grow up learning how China saved them from "Western aggression".

How exactly does it hurt the Russian government's ability to do anything?

And as for food, Russia is already a net exporter.

If they didn't care about the operation of the economy they wouldn't care about oil
simply, it puts inner pressure on him. if enough people in Russia feel the war on them, then they will stand up.
I reiterate: there's not a single example of that working in the history of sanctions against authoritarian regimes, ever.

The reason why there isn't one is because whatever sanctions you can come up with, they cannot make life harder than said authoritarian regime for people inside the country if they tried to "stand up". You might be eating less because of sanctions, but standing up means you'll be eating even less in prison - assuming you live to see it.

A problem with authoritarian regimes is that their people can't opt out of violence. Instead, in this instance, it's other nation's citizens made to pay while Russians suffer relatively minor financial crises for the acts of a government they are usually supportive of. If it's hard to stand up now, it would have been easier before they allowed the extension of term limits or assassinations in other countries. Every Western democracy owes itself to someone, at the least indirectly to French revolutionaries.