[graphpercolator]

It is just hard for me to believe the Russian economy can collapse in 2022 without causing a global financial contagion. We are probably already beyond the 1998 Russian financial crisis and that was in a far less interconnected global economy.

The global financial system is interconnected in unknowable ways. It is far too high dimension to reason about or model in any meaningful way. Especially the higher order effects of these decisions.

I would just be shocked that what Russia is planning to do will stabilize anything.

I just don't know if blindly pulling every financial lever available is the right move here given the fragility of the global economy after 2 years of COVID.

[anonAndOn]

Russia is a petrostate with a few extremely wealthy insiders who have been skimming off the nation's profits for a couple decades instead of building a giant economy. What else besides oil and gas does Russia really provide to the world? Thankfully, there are many levers to pull to ease the shocks of cutting off fungible Russian energy.

[pixl97]

Russia's economy is the size of Florida's.

Meanwhile not pulling your financial levers when a dictator pulls off the eastern war of aggression is a great way to ensure that you have lots of economic and human hardships in the future.