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by drran 1570 days ago
BTW: Can a NATO country shoot a target at territory of Ukraine over the border, like Russia and Belarus do?
4 comments

Sure they can. If they declare war and officially enter the conflict. That wouldn't be a NATO action though, it's a defensive pact.

And it won't happen. Although... the last few days have shown extraordinary events that I never expected. The EU approving 500 Million for weapon purchases for Ukraine, countries supplying fighters after two days delay, officiaks saying that their are fine with their citizens volunteering to fight for another state army (illegal pretty much everywhere), plans to supply troop movement intelligence... That's all just a very small step from active participation.

This is the most significant shift in European politics since the fall of the Soviet union.

>And it won't happen.

We'll see what happens if Russia continues to indiscriminately massacre civilians by using MLRS into dense urban centers.

Why they must declare a war, while Russia and Belarus doesn't? Is there a special international law just for NATO?
Yes, there actually is international law. It's not just for NATO, it applies to Russia and Belarus as well.

But Russia is ignoring those laws. What Russia is doing is called "war of aggression": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_aggression

"A war of aggression, sometimes also war of conquest, is a military conflict waged without the justification of self-defense, usually for territorial gain and subjugation."

I'm reading a lot about the 37' Spanish war atm, and there is some common points between the reactions of NATO and the then Alliance. Hopefully we won't have a Stalin in our rank betraying everybody.
What are you reading?
This is generally regarded as a bad idea. It's hard to see where that stops without a nuclear war.
Turkish army shot Russian plane with no consequences.
When and in what circumstances? There are military accidents, or what can plausibly be called accidents. Intentionally shooting down a plane, especially during a war, is another matter.
NATO forces directly engaging with Russia troops, whether they’re in the Ukraine or elsewhere, would dramatically escalate the war.

Right now, it seems NATO strategy is severe financial sanctions while providing arms to Ukrainian forces.

Crazy as things are going I am expecting Russia to declare that as kind of allied declaration against them.
That's basically what was done the whole Cold War. USA goes to Vietnam --> USSR supports the other fraction with weapons etc. USSR goes to Afghanistan --> USA supports the Afghans etc.

Having Cold War situations again isn't desirable of course but it's kind of battle tested to not lead to further, direct, escalations.

I remember those days, and somehow this now seems much worse.
Wouldn’t they instantly get stomped by NATO if they declared in any way to be at war with NATO? Or would they still have to attack a member first?

I do realise the risk of nukes at that point but in the hypothetical situation that nukes remain MAD

Long range missiles are enough to start messing with European allies, no need for nukes on the first round, afterwards oh well.

Also it is quite clear Putin won't lose his face no matter what, and has reached the point of better dead than sorry.

Very sadly how many has he already taken down with such attitude.

This is involving NATO in the war and is casus belli. Don't do that.
You're right in theory. In reality, though, allowing citizens to call him President Putain is a casus belli, as far as Russia is concerned, so I'm not sure what actual difference it makes.

For the record, Russia also said sanctions would be considered an act of war. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Russia says a lot, I wouldn't believe all of it to be either honest or true.

That aside Russia coming up with it's own reasons for engaging in war with a country is different than Russia having internationally recognized reasons for engaging in war with a country.

> That aside Russia coming up with it's own reasons for engaging in war with a country is different than Russia having internationally recognized reasons for engaging in war with a country.

Can you explain? Is there another internationality, except UN, which has authority to allow wars?

> Is there another internationality, except UN, which has authority to allow wars?

Kind of. International law is made up of both treaties and customary international law, which is (to oversimplify) basically a distillation of state practice. Think of it as almost analogous to statues vs. common law.

For example, while the U.S. is not a party to the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, it recognizes most of its tenets as customary international law. (This is also why it regularly conducts freedom of navigation passages in the South China Sea, to prevent China's ownership claim from becoming customary international law.)

If a large number of nations (say, NATO?) agreed that another lawful basis for the use of force (LBUF) existed, beyond the right of self-defense or an UNSCR, that could become customary international law. The hot topic in this area right now is humanitarian intervention, which NATO cited in its Kosovo intervention and which the UK recognizes as a CIL LBUF. This gets meta real fast, since even though a large number of nations reached consensus on using it as justification for Kosovo, they haven't reached a consensus that there is a consensus on using it. Only the UK explicitly recognizes it as CIL, last I checked.

So what you see instead is this kind of academic song and dance where, e.g., the U.S. de facto is using humanitarian intervention to justify intervention in Syria but de jure relies on a mildly stretched interpretation of self-defense instead.

Turkey already did that. Also, you miss Vietnam, Korea, and other wars, where USA was at war with USSR forces.
Not disagreeing with your conclusion, but the casus belli is already there.