[arcticbull]

Currently it only helps the Russians. The Ukrainians aren't banned from banking, and can receive contributions and move money. The Russians on the other hand can leverage crypto to evade sanctions, work around SWIFT bans and support the war effort. Once folks catch on, restrictions should follow, in a perfect world. This world is far from perfect, though, so time will tell.

[jacquesm]

Crypto marketcap would have to go up massively to make that work with the little bit of crypto that is in active circulation. It will be a drop on a hot plate.

[ipaddr]

They can work around swift by making deals with other banks directly.

[arcticbull]

And yet those banks want to retain SWIFT access. My understanding is that even mainland Chinese banks didn't want to hold accounts for sanctioned entities in Hong Kong in 2020.

You really don't want to get cut out of the international banking system. It's not a good time. You lose your correspondent banking relationships and you get rekt.

In fact this happened humorously enough with Bitfinex/Tether and Noble Bank. After they talked Noble into banking them, they lost their correspondent banking relationship in the US and were forced into insolvency. [1]

[1] https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/2021.02.17_-_settlemen...

[geoffmunn]

People seem to think that it’s easy to create a SWIFT alternative (one that gains acceptance) and that Putin is logging into Coinbase to buy bitcoin. Neither is going to happen.

[arcticbull]

I'm not sure why it wouldn't. You can easily launder crypto, disguise its origin and have a designated third party close the positions out at a banked exchange.

That's literally the value proposition of crypto. That you can conduct international transactions without permission.

So either...

(1) The raison d'etre hasn't been met, and therefore, it's not really providing any value over a permissioned system. Or...

(2) It works exactly as designed, allowing permissionless payments across borders and so oligarchs and demagogues can transact internationally in violation of international sanctions.

I don't see a good outcome. Am I missing something?

[geoffmunn]

If a crypto coin transaction has passed through a wallet which is known to be held by a scammer (or Russian govt), you can blacklist that coin. Tumblers help, but takes away credibility.

[arcticbull]

So run it through a DEX or take a haircut. This is the Russian government or oligarchs we're talking about not Razzlekhan.