[arcticbull]

> Tesla is growing MASSIVELY. It's basically a certainty they'll be making 2+ Million high margin cars by 2023, likely up to 5 Million in the next 5-10 years. The stock price reflects that massive growth.

So 5-10 years from now they'll still produce half as many cars as Toyota. Assuming they can do so without reducing their margins, and that in the interceding decade, not a single other mainstream automaker will produce a competitive vehicle. That's quite an assumption.

Based on their growth trajectories, they won't reach Toyota's production rate until about 10 years from now - in spite of being valued the same as the entire rest of the auto industry put together today.

There really is no justification.

[grecy]

> That's quite an assumption

Saying that makes no more sense than saying "putting $100 on that horse to win is quite the assumption."

It's got nothing to do with assumptions, it's gambling plain and simple.

Right now, evidently, plenty of people are taking the bet that Tesla is going to do very well in the future.

[arcticbull]

It's like if the odds of a horse to win are 1:10 but you're betting 100:1. It's irrational and has no basis when compared to other similar companies.

They're not betting that the "company will do great in the future" - that's not really how this works - they're betting number go up.

There's a lot of ways for number to go up, some to do with the underlying business, and some to do with short-term price action gambling. The difference is the former is sustainable over time - positive sum even - the latter is not, and the market will usually drain the latter out.