| Oversupply is just as much a crisis as undersupply. The lead time on ramping capacity up and down is long, which leads to a cyclic market which overshoots in one direction or the other. It's hard to predict the cycles. However, an "oversupply" crisis means that either: - prices falling, meaning costs aren't covered; - equipment isn't running 24/7 as intended, leading to higher costs This means businesses go under. There's a firesale which is nice, but the structural damage is far more harmful. Personally, I'd like to see this industry a little bit more socialized. I'd like my chips produced in the USA, even if they cost a little bit more, so we're self-sufficient. I'd also like the supply chains to be in the US. I think the same goes for the EU, China, and hopefully soon, India and Africa. Having five independent supply chains costs five times as much, and I understand the efficiency argument for having just TSMC (and maybe Samsung or Intel), but I think both COVID and Ukraine highlight the risks of systemic failure. We're just a little too over-dependent on each other. I also wouldn't mind if my taxes paid for some excess, unused capacity, as they do with food production. That's also less efficient, but gives resilience. We don't need to be self-sufficient everywhere, mind you. Most goods aren't essential. I do think each region should be self-sufficient for food, medicine, and now, ICs. |