[s1artibartfast]

This completely ignores giving Russia a reason to invade Finland. Russia has had no strategic need or desire to invade Finland and lived as neighbors for 70 years.

Joining NATO and giving it leverage over the Russian navy would vastly increase the chance of Finland being pulled into a hot conflict with Russia

[adrian_b]

Russia has always had a reason to invade Finland.

Like they want Ukraine back, as it belonged to the Russian Empire, they also want back Finland, as it belonged to the Russian Empire.

In the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact, written immediately before WWII, Russia stated once more their wish to incorporate Finland. Nothing has ever changed in their intentions since then until now.

They have waited until the time when they believed they are strong enough to regain control over Ukraine.

They will also wait a time when they will believe that they can successfully attack Finland. They will not give up on this idea until a completely different kind of government will replace Putin and those like him, which does not seem likely, unless he would suffer a shameful defeat in Ukraine.

[s1artibartfast]

Russia can't hold Ukraine and they know it. This is a punitive invasion and they will be out after crippling the military and getting the NATO neutrality concessions they want.

Russias power is waning, and at the same time Ukraine-NATO integration is approaching the point of irreversibility. From the Russian perspective the window to stop Ukraine is closing. Finland has no such window right now unless they create one