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by dynamic_sausage 1568 days ago
Not sure what this guy's credentials are, but here he tries to give advice to the people who have i) overthrown a corrupt government with little but baseball bats, tires, and home-made molotovs ii) stopped and maybe even reversed the progress of what has been hailed as the "2nd army in the world".

Dunno, wish I had his self-confidence.

6 comments

> Not sure what this guy's credentials are

He retired as a Major in the US Army (he’s also a Colonel in the California State Guard, but that's less of a qualification) after 24 years of infantry service, including two combat tours in Iraq, and he is the chair of urban warfare studies for the Modern War Institute at the US Military Academy (West Point). [0]

So, when it comes to urban warfare, he probably has some idea what he is talking about.

[0] from: https://www.ausa.org/people/maj-john-w-spencer-us-army-retir... except for the State Guard rank.

Thanks for posting these, they are very cool.

I was not trying to say he wasn't trustworthy, I am sure he means well. (plus, I am certainly not qualified to judge his advice)

What I am thinking about is this: how confident can you generally be with applying your expertise/giving advice, when you yourself learn about the circumstances from secondary sources? I mean, he's not on the ground, but he confidently describes very specific barricade shapes, etc. If I were a naive protester, I could set up these barricades — and immediately interfere with the regular army, with movement of our own troops, etc.

> how confident can you generally be with applying your expertise/giving advice, when you yourself learn about the circumstances from secondary sources?

How do doctors know about diseases they haven't had themselves?

Someone who's experienced one specific conflict, even first hand, may know less than someone who's studied a range of conflicts and derived and war-gamed doctrine from what they saw.

> Not sure what this guy's credentials are

He's literally both a colonel and a professor of urban warfare.

Professor of urban warfare? His PhD defense must have been more literal than most.
PhD is a degree, professor is a title, two different things.
1) You don't fight an army the same way you protest your government. Yes there was gunfire, fighting and massacre during Euromaidan, but fighting riot police (most of whom were not shooting the protestors with live ammunition) is nothing like fighting an army that's coming in with assault rifles, tanks, apcs, air strikes, etc.

2) That's a massive accomplishment by the armed forces of Ukraine, but it is still useful to advise civilians and make them better prepared in case the fight gets to that point. They weren't handing out assault rifles to civilians for the lulz. I'm sure there are a lot of people among them who have no fighting experience.

From his twitter bio: Chair of Urban Warfare Studies, Modern War Institute(@warinstitute)| Colonel (CA) | @MilWritersGuild | Author, Connected Soldiers
> stopped and maybe even reversed the progress of what has been hailed as the "2nd army in the world". Dunno, wish I had his self-confidence.

I also wish I had self-confidence to say anything that suggests that Ukraine reversed progress of German troops. It was Soviet Union that did that in an offensive which started shortly after the battle of Stalingrad. Ukraine was under Nazi occupation throughout majority of the war with one major nationalist insurgency group fighting both Nazis and Soviets simultaneously.

Twitter does a great job of elevating expertise signaling individuals, especially with long threads where mentions of "past experiences" and other name dropping dramatically boosts one's exposure.
Are you complaining here that experts on particular subjects are talking about their areas of expertise publicly?
It also does a great job of making it easy for people who chair urban warfare studies at West Point to provide advice to a global audience.