[ipodopt]

I am not an expert but this is my rough take.

It seems that the Russians are having logistical issues. They are running out of gas. Not sure how but it seems like it.

We are hearing today about them sending in more armored divisions. These will re enforce the supply lines. But this is a really risky play. It is a double edge sword. Now that they send more in they need even more gas. And if they run out they suffer a larger loss. What good are 4,000 tanks without fuel? Suddenly your armored division are infantry divisions who are outgunned on foreign soil.

The less risky play would be to withdraw there armor pretty far back. But this means an extend war. Which they should lose do to basically endless international support to the Ukraine and their willingness to fight.

So the play would be to pull back and stick to claiming the small section of the separateness region they have capture so far. This is will happened when the last of the armored units cross the line to cover the retreat. Given Ukraine can last four more days and keep the supply lines broken.