[somenameforme]

I decided to run a binomial on it, because these sort of things can be quite counter-intuitive, and I was also curious! My only assumption was a lifetime of 80 years. And it turns out the magic rate to get a 40% criminal injury expectation (over a lifetime of 80 years) is if you're in an area with a violent crime rate of at least 6.4 crimes per 1000 people per year.

The FBI gives [1] a national violent crime rate (in 2019) of 366.7 per 100,000, so 3.7 per 1000. However, in the 90s the violent crime rate peaked at 7.6 per 1000 [2] and wouldn't fall below 6.4 until 1996. So the conclusion is that his numbers seem pretty much spot on.

Of course it's also somewhat misleading in another way though. Violent crime is not normally distributed and influenced heavily by demographics and location. Detroit has an aggravated assault rate (which is just one component of the criminal injury rate) of 15.2 per 1000 people, while Irvine, California has a rate of 0.2 per 1000 people. It's one of the many cases where the average doesn't really tell you anything at all about your own chances for an outcome.

[1] - https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-...

[2] - https://www.statista.com/statistics/191219/reported-violent-...