[snowwrestler]

The book Eternity by Greg Bear had an interesting take on this. In that book (spoiler) there is an exchange of nuclear weapons between the U.S. and Russia, which devastates the surface of the Earth.

But many people survive, and a society quickly develops post-war. But it is dominated not by those who were most individually prepared, but by those who contributed the most to their neighbors and communities.

There is some overlap of course; some preppers have a lot to give and do so. But the ones who isolate in compounds with their hoard for too long emerge into the new society to be met with scorn, or even outright violence in some cases.

I had not thought about it that way but it kind of makes sense. It’s easy to like someone who is helping you. And shared hardship can bond a group of people.

It’s a great book, in addition to this aspect (which is a somewhat minor part of it).

[toomuchtodo]

Enjoyed this comment. Vibes with an essay by Cory Doctorow about needing a “bug in bag” not a “bug out bag”, to run towards community to help versus running to the mountains, as you need collective action to survive.

https://boingboing.net/2015/12/21/a-survivalist-on-why-you-s...

https://boingboing.net/2008/07/13/postapocalypse-witho.html

[ChrisMarshallNY]

That's how the Japanese do it.

If you have noticed, they do a really good job of responding to disasters. In fact, one of the funniest aspects, is that the Yakuza (Japanese mobsters) often are the first ones on the scene, and seem to take pleasure at beating the government response.

I suspect that part of the reason is that organized crime tends to have an incredibly robust infrastructure, hardened against unpredictable stressors.

Personally, I have no intentions of living in the type of feudal/fascist society that most preppers seem to yearn for.

BTDT.

I (legitimately) would rather croak.

[skylanh]

(Speaking totally out of turn and without any sort of knowledge of the situation)

The rapid response of the Yakuza may simply be opportunistic and predatory.

Food, clothes, shelter, help to save precious heirlooms, those are all inflexible needs.

Borrowing on "social credit" on inflexible needs can be exploitatively steep later.

In the Yakuza-as-"helpers" model, they're taking advantage of chaos and economics theories.

I think you can see what is really happening if we switch out "Yakuza" with any outlaw criminal organization in the States like as in "During the floods of '22, I got help to save my photos of my great grandparents from the Gambino's...", or "During the hurricane and disasters of '22, I needed antibiotics for my daughter, the Hell's Angel's helped me..."

[tetsusaiga]

My knowledge of the Yakuza is limited to a single ~1-hour interview with a former member...

But that said, hearing it from the source has made me inclined to believe the more charitable interpretation.

I found the interview for anyone who is especially interested:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVmt80EXNGI

Obviously this is not some sort of definitive source, but he goes into "What is the real Yakuza vs. that which we see in pop culture" very quickly, which is sort of the heart of this idea.

Note: The guys runs an anime channel, but it's a very serious interview all the same.

[Teever]

I'm not too versed in the subject but I have a feeling that in disaster scenarios it's better to take the Ronald McDonald House charity model than the payday loans model for organized crime.

People don't forget when you take advantage of them when down and they'll be loathe to do business with you in the future when they're not.

It's a PR move.

[homonculus1]

And you think the government is doing it out of transcendant charity?

[toomuchtodo]

I think there's value in borrowing a bit from various cultures. American individualism has a role in creating a strong sense of self and instilling confidence (but take it too far and you get the examples enumerated here about isolationist preppers), while Japan and Europe have strong sense of community (leaning more towards Europe due to Japan's culture causing a bit of oppression around individual identity in deference to the whole) and coalescing around shared struggle and overcoming that struggle.

There is a reason they break you down and build you back up as a team in military bootcamp.

[marcosdumay]

> Yakuza (Japanese mobsters) often are the first ones on the scene, and seem to take pleasure at beating the government response.

That's what mobs do. If you take the protection out of a protection racket, you end with an empty organization and people asking why they should pay you if they'll get beaten either way.

[uxp100]

I don't think there is a clean distinction between a fuedal/fascist society, and one where organized crime, historically often tied to ultranationalist far right parties, leads the response in crises. That is what I'd expect in a fascist society, an active para-government organization tied to particular politicians and parties.

(That being said, I don't really think the Yakuza even meets this romanticized vision that is pretty much fascism. There is more fiction presenting them as cruel but competent organization builders, and less presenting them as violent meth addicts.)

[ChrisMarshallNY]

These were two different things.

In the kind of world that preppers dream of, they are the “rulers,” because they hoarded the goods, and have the weapons.

What would actually happen, if someone spent more than thirty seconds, thinking it through, is that a few badasses (probably organized crime), would take the stash and the weapons, and kill the preppers, if they even hinted at a fight. This is what already happens, in areas where the rule of law deteriorates.

In countries with strong social infrastructure, we are more likely to see people helping each other, as opposed to themselves.

BTW: Japan doesn't have much of a meth problem. You can buy damn good speed, OTC. I think that the Philippines have a pretty bad meth problem.

[User23]

I heard once that the Yakuza are actually in the phone book in Japan. Can anyone confirm?

[grp000]

I heard that Yakuza have business fronts that are open secrets. If that's the case, then they probably are.

[buginabag]

In and of itself, the "bug out bag" doesn't necessarily imply running off to the wilderness but the fact that you might have to abandon your residence due damage (fire, quake-related structural damage, advancing enemy force).

If you have a bug-in bag you ought to have a bug-out bag for the simple fact that "Shit Happens."

[dTal]

Doctorow also wrote a story titled "Masque of the Red Death" (yes, like the Poe story) which directly depicts the fate of an isolationist bunker in a post-apocalyptic scenario.

[tetris11]

https://archive.org/details/Cory_Doctorow_Podcast_332

[Freak_NL]

Good story. It is collected in Radicalized (ISBN 978-1-78954-494-7) which contains four of his novellas (including this one) about dystopian futures. I can recommend it.

[BoxOfRain]

I think survivalism can get a little bit solipsistic. Realistically, once you've survived whatever made society collapse to begin with your continued existence will depend very much on how much practical help you can give a community rather than abstract things like money or pre-collapse social status. We're social creatures to the bone, it'll likely be the most effective co-operators who will ultimately win out in a post-apocalyptic society rather than the most violent or the most self-sufficient.

I think of 'prepping' more as about acquiring useful practical skills you can offer the community in a post-apocalyptic society than storing tons of tinned tomatoes in a bunker.

[btbuildem]

I've always thought the way to prepare for / survive such hardships is to have a strong community, not some elaborate individualistic prepper bunker scenario.

[jerf]

A "strong community" full of people with no resources isn't going to work so well, though.

Best way to get into that "small community" is to have something to offer. Of course, it may not be a "bunker", but if all you're bringing to your "strong community" is another mouth to feed and some free time, don't expect the community to celebrate your arrival.

Indeed, they may not even let you in. It would be a time of strong communities, yes, but not the "let's all hold hands and sing kumbaya in our glorious unity"-style strong communities. It's going to be working hard together to survive. Those who don't have something to contribute aren't going to find themselves very welcome.

Basically, what I'm saying is, don't think "oh, I'll just have a strong community to fall back on so I don't need to do any prep". Especially if you're not already in one! If nothing else, prep today as your contribution to that strong community tomorrow.

(And I mean "prep" as the document does, sensible precautions to increase your robustness and decrease your reliance on resources that will be stretched thin in event of catastrophe, things that might actually happen, not necessarily piling 4 years of food into a bunker. Considering one of the "things that will never happen" just happened you have a more clear view than ever of what sort of things might go wrong, and, well, even if the virus is basically done there's plenty of reasons to believe the consequences of it are not.)

[bluGill]

Even if you are a prepper, there is always the risk that you aren't able to get home. Maybe you are on a trip across the ocean, maybe you died in the initial attack. As such you should tell your friends who might be able to get to your bunker how to get in without you. Maybe you save a friend even if you can't save yourself.

Also it is easy to have enough food to last for a year or two, but what after that? It is a lot easier to survive if you have a village with you. A village protects against loneliness/depression. A village planting fields makes it more likely not all of them fail (rain/hail is often unevenly distributed even across a small village). A village makes it more likely that useful skills survive - medical doctors (even without modern infrastructure they can still do a lot), various trades can often figure out useful things (if there are enough engineers and some sort of easy power source you might even be able to get an electric grid for your village). With enough people it is more likely someone actually knows enough about gardening to help you grow food.

[WesolyKubeczek]

Why not both?

What good is your strong economy if one weak link in its supply chain just ceases?

[agumonkey]

You need some good ingredients in your community too. Otherwise it's a dead mass maybe ?

[CPLX]

Since we are talking about books I’d like to add “The Road” by Cormac McCarthy to the reading list. It’s almost unimaginably bleak but just completely incredible.

[marcellus23]

I just read Parable of the Sower by Butler and it's also very relevant I think.

[anamax]

Eternity is fiction. It isn't evidence, it's a story.

Compare Lord of the Flies with https://www.theguardian.com/books/2020/may/09/the-real-lord-... .

There will be a range of outcomes.

That said, my plan is to become Mormon.

[hbarka]

“If you want to go fast go alone; if you want to go far go together.”

[TrispusAttucks]

Self-preparedness and self-reliance is not mutually exclusive with community.

A community whose members are all self-prepared and self-reliant is a stronger community.

In the disaster preparedness books I have read being the "lone wolf" was never advocated and was actively discouraged.

[rvense]

Here in Denmark, it's impossible to get more than maybe ten kilometers from a settlement of 500+ people.

I am, by local standards, comparatively out in the sticks, but I'm still no more than a few hours walk from a city of a 100,000. Even if something happened that wiped out 90% of them, that's still a lot of people who are likely to walk by here and want my food.

Prepping for just myself would be a solipsistic fantasy.

[tomaskafka]

Yes. I am unfortunately not a doctor, but seeing a few up close, I think that knowing how to treat injuries and diseases will be much more useful, than any amount of guns, ammo, and food.

[hef19898]

Directly followed by the ability to repair, and build, stuff. From tools to machines and infrastructure.

[pasquinelli]

i've sometimes thought i should accumulate a small stockpile of salt. to paraphrase umberto eco in "the mysterious flame of queen loana"

> without salt nothing tastes like nothing

seems plausible i could gather enough to share without too much trouble. now i'm thinking of it, msg would be another good one.

[Melio]

There was a Simpsons episode were they had a bunker but not for enough people.

Flanders had not enough space and was left outside. Then everyine started to emerge from the bunker.

People who think they want to survive an apocalypse so badly that they romantify a bunker live might not have thought through it deep enough.

I want to be protected from a fallout so I can move out of my region after the fallout but that means survival of a few days not month or years. And I definitely don't care much for lifing on a totally destroyed planet.

[dTal]

The joke was that it was Flanders' bunker.

[exhilaration]

The scene: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6LSIsy6YEXQ

[jhpaul]

Que Sera Sera

[ramesh31]

>But many people survive, and a society quickly develops post-war. But it is dominated not by those who were most individually prepared, but by those who contributed the most to their neighbors and communities.

This is exactly what all the "prepper" survival types don't seem to understand. In a nuclear apocalypse, your supply stores will be nothing but a resource cache for roaming bands of killers. And your supply of 50 guns with ammunition will just be an extra fun treat for them. The only way to survive is alliances, trade, and mutual defense. Life will revert to feudalism very quickly.

[throwaway4aday]

I don't think feudalism is the correct term here, that was a very specific system where hereditary lords provided military aid to a king in exchange for the land which the serfs belonging to the lords worked. That seems closer to what you imagine prepper survival types want with the gun nuts lording over everyone else.

I don't believe most preppers think or act the way you imagine. The gun crazy redneck with a bunker is a trope from movies and reality TV.