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by snemvalts 1573 days ago
Don't put any money into both stock exchanges right now, especially the russian one.
1 comments

Why not? Seems like a great time. Buy low
Ever heard the phrase "don't try to catch a falling knife"? We don't know how far this crisis will go. And we've only just started on the path of serious sanctions.
Seems like the risk that Russia and Russian based companies won't exist 5 years from now is low
The risk of the companies disappearing may indeed be low.

One historical fact does come to mind: the St. Petersburg stock exchange reopened in 1917 (after being closed for world war 1), then closed two months later because of the Russian Revolution. It did not reopen and shareholders of Russian stocks lost everything.

I don't see something like that happening today. But what if Russia confiscates the shares of foreign shareholders?

The risk that it's illegal or impossible to get your money out is not as low.
I guess that is the speculative aspect. I think the risk is extremely low that there will be sanctions on retail stock investment 5 years from now.
Because sanctions might mean you can't get your money back from Russia.

And Ukraine might not exist as a country soon.

What money would go into Russia? Just buy on a US stock exchange
You replied to a comment suggesting not putting money into Russian or Ukrainian stock exchanges, asking why not.

> Don't put any money into both stock exchanges right now, especially the russian one.

Then you are asking what money would go into Russia...

Fair, but you can still buy Russian company stock on other exchanges, pink sheets, ect.
But will it go lower? Will it ever go back up higher? Will the company you invest in go bankrupt, or its factories get destroyed (intentionally or accidentally)?

I mean if you have the money and confidence by all means, take the gamble, but keep in mind it's a gamble. Don't sell your house, don't spend your reserves, don't bet everything on one horse.

On the Ukrainian side, I think those are real risks. I don't think there is chance of Russia loosing the war or major Russian companies going under.
For Russian one - Putin controls all of the companies in a way. Shareholders have no say. This is reflected by the markets. Market cap of the exchange was 700b, largest US tech companies are larger on their own. For Ukrainian one - the country might not exist in a few weeks in the current state.

If you want to play on the effects of the conflict, either buying or shorting the ruble is the best way to go.