[Dolores12]

> Is Russia just suicidal?

Russia has no other choice. When USSR in 1962 [0] did something similar to USA, USA was not happy and it could end up really bad. How is this situation is different? National security is paramount.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_Missile_Crisis

[scottLobster]

I keep hearing this comparison. Tell me, when has NATO threatened to place nuclear missiles in Ukraine? Because that's the only way this comparison holds water.

No NATO country has ever invaded Russian soil and never will due to their massive nuclear arsenal.

I'm willing to admit Putin may have convinced himself and some Russians that there's a national security concern, but the evidence is severely lacking.

[CapricornNoble]

>>>Tell me, when has NATO threatened to place nuclear missiles in Ukraine? Because that's the only way this comparison holds water.

The comparison is that missiles in Cuba = "disturbs the Mutually Assured Destruction equation". Anti-Ballistic Missiles in Russia's near abroad....disturbs the MAD equation. That is the national security concern. It's the same thing Russia has been saying since....2007? http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6599647.stm

Do you think Putin wants to until US ABMs are already deployed in a NATO Ukraine to then voice his concerns? That would be too late. Consider this a very drastic preemptive action, but it's entirely in keeping with Russia's approach to security in their near abroad for the past ~15 years, for anyone who has been paying attention.

[scottLobster]

No one is going to risk a nuclear war under the stupid assumption that their ABM systems will be 100% effective. Also Biden mentioned missile deployments in Eastern Europe were a potential bargaining point, although I'm not sure exactly how those talks went.

Regardless, the only thing Putin has to fear from NATO ABM systems, and NATO membership for Ukraine in general, is an end to their ability to conquer Eastern Europe militarily.

I'm sorry if that explanation doesn't suit Russian paranoia, but I see no upside to tolerating said paranoia either. And neither, apparently, does Ukraine, despite standing to lose the most in this situation.

[CapricornNoble]

>>>the only thing Putin has to fear from NATO ABM systems, and NATO membership for Ukraine in general, is an end to their ability to conquer Eastern Europe militarily.

Around 9/11, the Russians were focused on Chechen insurgents and terrorists, and our relations with them thawed significantly: https://carnegieendowment.org/2001/10/24/u.s.-russia-relatio...

Later in the 2000s, Russia discussed NATO and EU membership but had generally been rebuffed. Still, they tried to maintain dialogue with NATO, even after slapping down Georgia: https://euobserver.com/news/27890. I think they considered their point made about keeping NATO in check, but we didn't get the message.

For about 15 years, Putin ran Russia without even possessing the capability for a major nation-state offensive in Europe. That changed with the reformation of the 1st Guards Tank Army, stationed west of Moscow, in 2014. The question so few people are investigating is "What are the things WE ("the West", generally speaking) have done to trigger the changes in Russian foreign policy? This is the introspection that I find deeply lacking. Everyone just chalks it up to "clearly he's a megalomaniacal madman! Nothing else needs be said!"

[ngc248]

>>> What are the things WE ("the West", generally speaking) have done to trigger the changes in Russian foreign policy?

Exactly this. The western world has this infallible belief that what they are doing if right and everyone else is wrong. They don't even stop to think the consequences. They are doing things which if reciprocated they won't accept and they say .. Oh we just want to spread democracy everywhere"

[Dolores12]

> Tell me, when has NATO threatened to place nuclear missiles in Ukraine?

I never said it has to be nuclear missiles. Tomahawks will do for 800km range. And that's a threat for national security.

>I'm willing to admit Putin may have convinced himself and some Russians that there's a national security concern, but the evidence is severely lacking.

If your neighbor says your dog is a concern, you better listen to your neighbor and do not adopt 10 more.

[scottLobster]

The Cuban missile crisis was over nuclear missiles, not conventional. NATO put nukes in Turkey and Italy, Russia tried to match with Cuba. The crises ended when both sides agreed to withdraw nuclear missiles from said countries.

If my irrational neighbor says my quiet, well-behaved dog is actually barking all day and night, growling at him as he walks by (even when the dog is inside), and if I don't stop it he'll break into my house and kill my dog: I keep my dog inside, put up some cameras, clean my gun and file a police report.

[Dolores12]

Well, that's the point. Ukraine never behave well, and its master seems to ignore numerous warnings and refuses to listen. Go file a report now.

ps: the good thing the master is safe and fine. he will adopt another one just to annoy the neighbor again.

[scottLobster]

Yeah, Ukraine is downright angelic compared to Putin's Russia. They actually had the potential to become a thriving democracy and regional economic power, something Putin can't have on his border. Makes him look bad and destabilizes his legitimacy, same reason the Soviets put up the Berlin wall.

[nindalf]

It takes a brave tankie to post this on HN. Godspeed comrade.