Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by ricardobayes 1574 days ago
I agree, Article 4 is nothing more than a consultation request. The real big thing is Article 5, which means if any ally is attacked, the others will help. Blinken confirmed US commitment to this is "ironclad".
1 comments

I don't know a lot about these issues, but here's the way I see it.

Ukraine isn't part of NATO, and Estonia hasn't been attacked, so Article 5 can't be invoked. Therefore, this is roughly the maximally aggressive possible response from Estonia.

Of course the US Secretary of State says US commitment to Article 5 is "ironclad"; if he doesn't say that, NATO basically stops existing, and with it much of the US's influence in the world. Therefore the fact that he says this conveys almost zero information.

I'll believe the US "ironclad" commitment to Article 5 when they build an air base and a naval base in the Baltics.

Because if Putin was to attack the Baltics tomorrow, they would cease to exist before any NATO ally would manage to get their warships past the Kaliningrad Oblast in the Baltic Sea.