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by roshanr 5373 days ago
Economists do not necessarily have a great track record with predicting the future state of the economy. From a study by Denrel and Fang: 'Economists who had a better record at calling extreme events had a worse record in general. “The analyst with the largest number as well as the highest proportion of accurate and extreme forecasts,” they wrote, “had, by far, the worst forecasting record.' [1]

Also, this Freakonomics podcast talks about the folly of prediction in general - http://freakonomicsradio.com/hour-long-special-the-folly-of-...

[1] http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2011/01/09/...