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by blatchcorn 1575 days ago
I am probably not going to change your mind. But I think some stuff you should consider are:

Is the volatility an inherent problem built into the code and design of bitcoin et al? Or does the volatility stem from external factors like it being new, difficult to value, and much lower market cap then other currencies? I personally believe that bitcoin's volatility is not by design and will not last forever.

Secondly, you should rethink whether comparing bitcoin to fiat is correct (I would suggest gold) and rethink if bitcoin really is deflationary. Bitcoin has a lot of similarities to Gold. Check out this report: https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.com/bin-public/060_www_fid...

There is nothing in bitcoin's code that makes it deflationary. The reward for mining bitcoin does decrease over time, but never does the supply decrease - it only grows or eventually stops growing at 21 million

3 comments

Yes, gold is another awful deflationary currency that drives people to poverty. The vast majority of people were poor on the gold standard. (Consider also, how much https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross_of_Gold_speech spoke to the people).

In any case, crypto isnt a currency. Comparing it to any currency presumes vastly too much, let alone "fiat" which has enabled the fastest increase in general wealth in human history.

Crypto is a extremely slow, extremely operationally expensive, nightmarish system of baseball card printing. Designed explicitly to progressively, over time, dramatically increase the power and wealth of the early-stakers. Its value only exists whilst people continue to buy it.

Whether deflationary currency is a good idea or not (it isnt: it's horrific); whether digital currency is a good idea or not (it might be); crypto isn't (really, sorry: its scam -- pushed knowingly by scammers, and unknowingly by those holding very very very expensive tulip bulbs, who "just cant see" why everyone doesnt want tulips).

The game crypto people play is this: talk about the tech with finance guys to bamboozle; talk about the finance with the tech guys, to bamboozle. Talk about fiat/politics/gov with everyone because "presumably there's something wrong with the economy right guys!!11! financial crash, etc etc.".

Despite, of course, the last half-century being the most wealth-productive for everyone in human history.

This is a confidence trick. Crypto has nothing to do with why blockchains are useful (mostly, they arent). Nothing to do with non-fiat currency (an inflationary one might be useful). Nothing to do with politics (a system which increases the power of a few early adopters is NOT! better than democratic politics).

Crypto is a scam. Blockchain, non-fiat, digital, anti-gov blah blah is the mask the scam wears. If you want a digital non-fiat anti-gov currency, go ahead and make one. Crypto *is not that*.

You have failed to acknowledge or address any of the points I brought to your attention. I didn't think I would change your mind anyhow
> I personally believe that bitcoin's volatility is not by design and will not last forever.

If the entire premise of bitcoin's valuation is an open market exchange based on supply (finite and fixed) and demand (variable), then logically, the outcome is perpetual volatility.

There will be zero cases where demand will flatline because this has never in human history occurred organically. For unforseen reasons (a business deal gone bad, a divorce, etc) a btc whale may decide to liquidate, causing a cascading effect of running out of USDT, bringing the entire market crashing down. Bezos may decide to add 4B worth of liquidity to BTC as a speculative portion of his portfolio. Shit like this will happen and only add to more volatility in valuation.

> There is nothing in bitcoin's code that makes it deflationary.

Depends on how strict you want to be. The number of coins the system allows is fixed. But the number of usable coins will decrease as coins are trapped in lost wallets. Software bugs, hardware failures, deaths, and simple forgetfulness will always make some coins unusable.

On the other hand, while "Bitcoin" on its own is deflationary, the whole ecosystem is wildly inflationary. There are uncounted forks of Bitcoin and related systems filling every speculation niche people can imagine.