[zhdc1]

> I’m blown away by how anti-crypto this discussion is. I hadn’t realized how negative the prevailing sentiment is on Hacker News.

The more I learn about crypto (which isn't a lot), the more I agree that digital currency is the way ahead.

I'm not convinced that decentralized ledger-based crypto is going to win out in the long term. Let's be honest, is there any coin at the moment that you would trust as a stable store of value and not a speculative investment? Fiat currency goes down in value over time, but most central banks are good enough at keeping the rate of loss relatively constant. Most, although not all, coins are also less than ideal for conducting transactions. There's also a regulatory aspect that, for some reason, is generally discounted by advocates.

However, I could definitely see something like GNU Taler gaining widespread adoption, especially if central banks make good on releasing digital currency. There's no reason for consumers or merchants to pay anything more than absolutely minimal transaction fees on purchases. There's also no reason that electronic payments or transfers can't post in near real time.

[aaronsimpson]

Even if the future of decentralized ledger cryptocurrency isn't bright, accelerating adoption of digital currencies is a good step forward. If that's all crypto ever accomplishes, I think it'll be a success. Some of course have concerns about privacy, tracking, etc., but the speed of payment rails in our current system is ridiculous given the technology we have.

[saul_goodman]

I somewhat agree with your sentiment: the outcome is sort of the same but for different reasons.

> "but most central banks are good enough at keeping the rate of loss relatively constant"

The past two years clearly demonstrated central banks deliberately set the rate of annual inflation to a desired level in a much more directed way than anyone realized. At least for business as usual economies. Once you see inflation as a tax it starts to make more sense. But the end result is a "mostly" responsible entity in control of the inflation rate, so the sentiment is same: traditional fiat currencies will be more stable for a while to come, maby forever (when compared to crypto).

> "I'm not convinced that decentralized ledger-based crypto is going to win out in the long term"

Blockchain was designed to surpass the problems the pre-Bitcoin E-gold service hit: the government can always smite you by raiding your office and taking the servers. That's the sole problem Blockchain solves, nothing more. In that sense it's already proven itself as a successful technology. Otherwise, if you're a government-sanctioned entity there's no need to fool with Blockchain when rolling a CBDC: your main physical risks are terrorists and natural disasters, not smiting by a police raid.

> "especially if central banks make good on releasing digital currency"

It's coming, but it's not what people want it to be. The Fed is saying "we're not trying to kill off cash" while putting out open calls to investigate all the things they need to do in order to kill off cash. Another issue here that I don't see being talked about is that the very nature of stable-coins exposes these assets to the inflation rate that the asset is pegged to. This means it's getting taxed, and so it makes sense for the Fed to want to get into the crypto world from that standpoint.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/money-and-... https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/files/ifdp1334.p...

The major danger with CBDC is that this is going to be used along with social credit scores. We just saw Canada lock bank accounts of anyone who donated to the trucker protest. These people are f#$%ed. Now imagine if they were locked out of using cash as well - even that emergency stash under the couch cushion would be useless to buy food. It's a nightmare situation and it's coming sooner than later. But again, governments and central banks don't need this level of power, governments have proven they will seize bank accounts of those they disagree with. But cash still allows people to move around these barriers. Once CBDC's roll out it's a very bleak outlook.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rpNnTuK5JJU https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2021/12/30/mexico-plans-to-i...