[etempleton]

The Chinese government wants it to happen and probably can make it happen, but it will not be easy. China would have to take the island by force and an amphibious invasion is logistically difficult and almost certain to face heavy casualties on both sides.

US and the west place a lot of strategic importance in Taiwan so they may come to the defense, but it is unlikely to be defendable for long.

We are seemingly moving towards another Cold War: China and Russia vs US and NATO.

[pmontra]

Those fabs are not ore mines. If you blew up a mine the ore is still there. If you blew up those fabs there is nothing left.

If Taiwan doesn't already have plans to destroy them in case of an invasion I'm sure they are the target of some missiles from outside the country.

[postingawayonhn]

The equipment they need to manufacture the latest chips is made by a Dutch company. The US has convinced the Dutch government to ban the export of that equipment to China. If China managed to gain control of TSMC they would loose access to that equipment.

[adventured]

Plus the US can trivially exfiltrate all the IP related to TSMC before China properly takes the island. Insiders will happily turn it over for any number of reasons.

The next step if China were to move on Taiwan, other than getting all the data and IP from TSMC's internal networks, would be to spin up a US division and assign that IP to that new corporation. And then the US should try to get as many of TSMC's employees to the US that they can.

Operation Paperclip TSMC.

[cma]

The US didn't just convince them to, the US was a big part of the development of technology with a government/industry consortium in the late 90s (EUV LLC) with DARPA being a big part. That partnership worked with ASML under terms that are now letting the US have a big say in export controls.

[unionpivo]

Part of the equipment.

Sure an important part. But lets not forget that there is a lot of knowledge in TSMC too. And China is trying to slowly buy their engineers.

Intel and AMD (now Global Foundries) both had access to same Dutch company's product and they didn't or barley managed to keep up.

[jansen555]

Not gonna happen. Tibet will get lots of freedom fighters courtesy of Uncle Sam and Aunty Indira. Same will happen at Xinjiang with groomed mujahideen fresh from Middle East plus American weaponry courtesy of free gift left in Afghan. China now is riped for breakage as inscribe in 5000 years of belief. One of American strategy to reduce China dominance is to accelerate breakage to 7 pieces (Xinjiang, Tibet, HK, North China, South China, Inner Mongolia and Heilonjiang). Attack on Taiwan, will have all the CCP children in America under internment similar to American Japanese during WW2. Would any parents able to meekly ignore that? Kill the emperor and save your children is a persuasive slogan. An economic blockade on the sea front and devastating India recovery of the western Aksai with Heilongjiang getting eyed upon by Putin while Japanese reconsider Manchuria. Most Chinese soldiers now are product of 1 child policy with very weak will to fight. Furthermore a breakage of world biggest dam would enough to wipe off 1/4 of Chinese capability on political and economic front. And remember the last few years strange prophecies happening in China. One notable one is June snowing in Beijing. Pandemic occuring in China history also signaling a change of dynasty. All in all, it is extremely unfavorable for Chinese to do a Putin Ukraine invasion. Putin is incredibly bright. You can go watch some of Putin's speeches on Youtube. Current Chinese leader is widelynknown on China to be not that well educated (due to Cultural Revolution) and lack eloquence. In short, attempt to take back Taiwan by force will end the China that we know now. People will care more about GPUs and CPU than the lives and prides of Chinese people.

[MrBuddyCasino]

Russia tried joining NATO multiple times and was rebuffed - this is entirely on the west. Obviously China is the new global rival to be concerned about, not Russia.

[DaftDank]

It does not seem unusual that an organization (NATO) created solely to defend/protect against one particular country would not allow that country to join forces with them.

[MrBuddyCasino]

If the German successor state to the Third Reich could join the western alliance after WW2, why can't the successor state to the Soviet Union join? Russia as a white-majority christian country shares many values and culture with the others.

The western alliance has not only rebuffed Russia, it has expanded eastwards against promises made and thus provoked the current situation in Ukraine.

What would the US do if the soviets were to expand into Mexiko? Or... Cuba? We know how that went. If the mission of NATO was to secure peace, why would they reject Russia? It makes no sense from that perspective.

The answer is that there are other reasons NATO exists and what it is being used for.

[988747]

> The western alliance has not only rebuffed Russia, it has expanded eastwards against promises made and thus provoked the current situation in Ukraine.

Every country is free to join NATO if they want, Russia has no say in it. And the reason why most Russia neighbors want to is because Russia is a bully, and NATO can protect them from being bullied.

> What would the US do if the soviets were to expand into Mexiko? Or... Cuba? We know how that went.

Well, for one the US did not attack Cuba... Also, Soviet Union was aggressor side for the whole duration of Cold War, that move was just prelude to further aggression against the West.

> If the mission of NATO was to secure peace, why would they reject Russia

Because the best way to secure peace is to keep Russia at bay.

> Russia as a white-majority christian country shares many values and culture with the others.

LOL, no. Russia does not share western values, such as democracy, freedom of speech or other human rights. They do not belong in Europe, they belong in Asia.

[MrBuddyCasino]

Your reply does not contain a single correct statement.

[ailef]

> Well, for one the US did not attack Cuba...

Please, go read an history book.

[hajile]

If Russia had reformed, they would likely have been accepted.

Instead they’ve had a string of bad actors taking bad actions and just going back to a dictatorship doing all the same things as the USSR.

Why allow them to join and give them all our strategic information just for them to use it against us?

[DaftDank]

I think there was more of a "break" in the decades since with Germany and Nazism, where in Russia, there wasn't as much of a break from the old Soviet systems and ways of thinking. Many years ago, I read this book, "The Limits of Partnership" by Angela Stent, one of the foremost US-Russia relations experts. She lays out in detail how an entire generation of Russians came up believing that the Soviet Union collapsed almost solely due to outside influence -- i.e. the United States -- and that it otherwise would not have failed without that undue influence. They want to see Russia restored to its former Soviet-era glory, encompassing all of its former territories. This is how pretty much the entire leadership in Russia thinks/believes. Putin 100% feels this way.

"If a factory is torn down but the rationality which produced it is left standing, then that rationality will simply produce another factory. If a revolution destroys a systematic government, but the systematic patterns of thought that produced that government are left intact, then those patterns will repeat themselves in the succeeding government. There’s so much talk about the system. And so little understanding.”

-- Robert Pirsig, "Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance"

[cjbgkagh]

I read somewhere a long time ago (so I could be wrong.) The origin of Switzerland happened when the bully state later joined the alliance that was explicitly formed to fight against it.