Depends on how critical TSMC will remain, there's also chance US will have to work with PRC to ensure production continuity. IMO preserving fabs as leverage is probably top priority for all parties concerned, no one gains from it's destruction. The scenario where US controls inputs, PRC controls fabs, TW controls production is still preferable to scenario where destroyed fabs grinds advanced industries around world (mostly in the west) to a crawl.
You think ASML wants to run afoul with the US, even if they can't force ASML? The main reason ASML has EUV is because it was funded by the US government to develop it. Now the tech is mostly ASMLs own, but they still have close ties to the US.
USA didn't have to force ASML to stop selling to China, they just had to ask them nicely.
> The main reason ASML has EUV is because it was funded by the US government to develop it
That seems like 20% true. The US had a brief EUV program ("EUV LLC") in the late 90s - it wasn't much compared to how much difficult, risky, and expensive development obviously still needed to be done afterwards. The EU also has basic semiconductor research, notably IMEC.
I have also seen that claim in a YouTube video by "Asianometry" and I wonder what the original source of that apparent misinformation is.
The company (originally named ASM Lithography, current name ASML, which is an official name and not an abbreviation)[10] was founded in 1984 as a joint venture between the Dutch companies Advanced Semiconductor Materials International (ASMI) and Philips.
The core ASML EUV technology is from their US subsidiary Cymer. All that IP is domiciled in the US. In addition, most of the critical semiconductor components throughout the scanner (FPGA, high performance analog, etc) come from American companies
If I recall properly, and if I trust what I read/viewed from the internet ages ago, EUV optics is from Germany (zeiss), and the EUV light is from cymer. cymer almost lost their part because they had been unable to deliver enough EUV light power for too long (in the end, it seems they shine their massive CO2 laser on a tin droplet, 2 times instead of one and yield enough power). mask/wafer alignment equipment, dunno where they are from (nanometric piezo-electric motors, with probably laser interferometer). Then, at the time everything was run in extreme vaccum, but heard something about hydrogen gas.
It's the Cold War and national security is at stake, you're not going far enough.
Think back to what went on from 1950-1990 in Europe and Asia, except it'll be even worse.
Blocking Nordstream 2 is the very bottom of the barrel compared to what's coming.
After a brief slumber the Russian Empire has awoken again in Europe and it's annexing territory (again). The Dutch would be foolish to spar with the US over ASML at this juncture. Dealing with Russia in Europe and China in Asia will take a concerted front by the US, Europe and their allies.
remember the Russian Empire has an economy the size of Italy. it does a lot of posturing and no doubt it can cause a worldwide mess if it stops exporting energy, but they're an empire in name only.
> remember the Russian Empire has an economy the size of Italy.
And a nuclear arsenal roughly the size of the second through fifth largest in the world, combined, and an inventory of main battle tanks roughly equal, quantitatively, to the second through fourth largest in the world, combined, etc.
When a country has outsized relative military capacity vs. relative economic capacity, especially when compared to their immediate neighbors, there is a very strong historical pattern of use or threat of use of the military capacity as a lever to achieve economic and/or territorial aspirations.
It can fail (while there can be a lag time, economic power is eventually transformable into military capacity), but it isn't unusual for it to succeed, or for the eventual failure to be at the end of a long and bloody conflict.
I would imagine there would at least be a sharp decrease in yield rates. Hard to imagine all those Taiwanese TSMC workers working hard to ensure the technological dominance of mainland China.
There's a reason PRC has much more success poaching TSMC employees than US trying to fill up new fabs. Why TW has drafted laws to prevent TW semiconductor talent from working on mainland. Generally TWers prefer working in PRC, with comparable language / culture. Great compensation and quick flight home. Reality is most of TSMC employees will been prevented from being paperclipped to the US in event of war, their future will be firmly tied to PRC and as significant assets, they'll be treated with more carrots than sticks.
Don’t worry, Intel is expanding foundry capacity for this case. Apple SoC will stay on the same node for couple years, but that’s not an end of the world for consumers.
TSMC also has the WaferTech fab in the US and is currently building fabs in the US and Japan. I imagine geopolitical diversity is one goal in the placement of those new fabs.
But it'd still lead to a massive global chip shortage if TSMC's facilities in Taiwan were wiped out. And I guess that is a deterrent that Taiwan can use against China.