[fallingfrog]

Well, I majored in physics, so to me the cow is always a sphere.. but you know, all models of reality are imperfect, no matter how complicated. And it’s true that I have no idea where on the curve we might be. I would certainly not use this model to make specific predictions- that would be silly. It’s more the general behavior of the system I’m interested in. But you can definitely make refinements. For example, if you add renewables then you still get a peak, but it doesn’t go all the way to zero afterwards.

I do realize too that my model makes assumptions- which have not been demonstrated to be true. So, that’s where I would attack it. Which assumptions are false?