[bee_rider]

It is hard to guess because politics is complicated and it is a hypothetical, but I'd be surprised if they really had unlimited time to circumvent the locks. If they hadn't given them up peacefully, for all we know somebody might have decided to take them by force.

[int_19h]

At the time, Russia couldn't even quickly deal with Chechnya by force.

[stjohnswarts]

Other people have thought that "At the time, Russia couldn't even..." and regretted it.

[int_19h]

Can you give some examples? I brought up Chechnya because it declared independence literally at the same time as Ukraine, and Russia waited for 3 years before finally sending the troops in (and that turned out to be a huge mess!).

[stjohnswarts]

Hitler mainly. Napolean? those are the classic examples. Both thought Russia was an impotent land of peasants. It's not like Russia has been invaded that many times.