[invalidname]

Sure. All predictions are guessing. Based on prior facts. E.g. annexation of Crimea.

We're literally seeing multiple reports from independent sources of bombings in those areas. The whole kindergarten bombing clearly there to trigger action that would result in a war.

This also piles up on what they say on national TV, the fact that they issue Russian passports to people in the area to justify the whole thing etc.

Will they eventually invade?

Who knows, that's like predicting the weather. But we don't guess the weather. We use maps and facts to make educated guesses based on facts.

Are they trying to trigger a situation that will give them an excuse to invade?

Sure. Obvious as daylight.