[daniel-cussen]

So to begin with, fact, Putin is a better chess player than Biden.

You might think, oh it's just a board game, computers are better at it. You could say that.

Apparently the strategy right now is get right next to the border of Ukraine and do military exercises, then watch as NATO loses its shit with every passing second.

[cainxinth]

Part of me wonders if it’s all a ploy to drive up oil prices.

[raphaelj]

It's already driving gas prices up, which also has some effect on oil prices.

[krzyk]

gas prices are driven by gasprom for few weeks already (jusr after a court in Germany forbid the new baltic pipeline usage).

[jabagigo]

I think the question the article brings up is, why is Russia playing chess against Ukraine and other such countries?

Why isn't Russia instead building bridges, establishing stronger economic bonds, and addressing its own issues inside itself to help increase the quality of life of its people?

And they seem to answer it by saying that Putin and entourage love chess and are really good at it, that's why.

Thus the conclusion is that they are more focused on themselves then what's best for their people.

I don't know if that's true, but it's what I understood from the article.

[nathanaldensr]

You assume that nationalism is not viewed by the Russian people as "what's best" for them. Are you sure of your assumption? Not every country believes in the West's new spirit of authoritarian corporatism (some might call it fascism) and collectivist social tendencies.

[unclebucknasty]

So, Russia takes on a war posture. NATO naturally responds rather predictably, then Russia just pulls its troops back?

What, exactly, is the strategic advantage there?

[ivan_gammel]

They try to make a point by demonstrating what is NATO expansion to them. Their only goal is to reduce NATO presence, not to expand anywhere. By creating a menace without actual invasion they try to discredit US government which makes failing predictions one after other and shifting public opinion, so that NATO will be forced to negotiate a number of treaties on favorable conditions. After all, NATO did seem to promise non-expansion as recently found archive document shows.

[monopoledance]

Destabilizing “the west” and preventing Ukraine from joining NATO. Look at the pandemic… Soon there will be toil about defensive measurements and expenses. The economy wont like a chronic war threat either. Putin just has to move Russia’s troops every now and then.

[TheOtherHobbes]

Russia splits the West, which is already in some chaos.

Germany is heavily reliant on Russian gas and has been unenthusiastic about sanctions, never mind stronger action. France is being "diplomatic". The UK is an incoherent mess because of Brexit and a mentally ill prime minister.

Also, energy prices. Which happen to benefit both sides.

It's exactly the strategy Russian trolls farms use on social media. Find multiple wedge issues, weaponise them - typically with narcissistic gaslighting and DARVO - inflame grudges and bad feelings on both sides, try to destroy the other side's common identity and purpose.

Putin will have to declare a victory of some sort, but it's likely to be formal annexation of a fairly small region. He'll also be able to blame poverty in Russia on Western sanctions.

The real weapon is the constant psychological and emotional pressure and deliberate confusion.

[hackeraccount]

NATO has no de jure or de facto commitment to Ukraine. Together and individually they've said repeatedly they don't want Russia going in to Ukraine and they've offered Ukraine support both military and non-military short of an actual commitment while at the same time threatening Russia with sanctions.

What exactly is stopping Putin from acting? Every day that goes by and Putin fails to act is it better to say "NATO is losing it's shit" or "Putin is afraid to act and is trying to find a way to declare victory without the burden of acting"

[daniel-cussen]

Nothing is stopping Putin from acting, he is acting. It's a menace. He has the option of acting--he can--but at the moment he's getting all kinds of results without actually declaring a war.

He's winning the war before it even begins.