[sweston4]

I 100% agree with what you're saying.

Assume a 1:10 insulin to carb ratio (though I don't think insulin dosages have a strictly linear effect) and a meal of 100 carbs. If the meal, in reality, has 80 carbs, you've injected two extra units of insulin. We might expect a unit of insulin to reduce blood glucose by 30-50 mg/dl, so we've reduced our expected blood glucose by 60-80 mg/dl. If you target a blood glucose of 80 mg/dl, this would mean your expected future glucose is 0-20 mg/dl. In that case, you would die.

Now, the problem with this example is that I would 100% take action to avoid dying, so my actual risk of death is still minute despite having a lethal dose of insulin in my body at the time I inject myself. However, it's still a bit strange to know that, conditional on me taking no independent action, I'm hours away from death in certain situations.