[graaben]

Do you expect things to get better in the future? I'm not in the market to buy right now, but I'm trying to understand if the current situation is the new normal or still a reaction to covid upheavals. My gut tells me that in 2-3 years things will be much closer to normal as rates rise and people that fled to suburbs decide to move back to the city.

[pbuzbee]

My theory is that places that are inherently more desirable, whether because of culture, geography, or employment opportunities, will remain high. This probably includes most coastal regions and trendy inland spots (Austin, Boulder, etc.).

I think a lot of 'secondary' markets could take a hit. These are places that the main appeal is their current relative affordability or proximity to a more-desirable area. I think buyers that are priced out of 'desirable' areas today are effectively settling for these secondary areas, which is raising those prices. I feel like those will be the first areas to take a hit. How big that hit will be, I certainly can't say. It could be as little as a reduced rate of property appreciation, or it could be as large as a 20% hit.

[thehoff]

I'd expect a lot of this depends on where you are. Some places it won't matter a whole lot what happens with Covid/rates.

Friends in the DC region aren't worried as this has been an ongoing trend for quite a long time (they have enough equity that a dip won't matter much). Friends in Southern California would probably say the same thing. But in Phoenix, I already hear some questions as to whether this will come tumbling down in a year or two.

Myself, bought a place (not a city and not quite the 'burbs) last year and I'm still curious about my local market so I still constantly check the real estate sites/apps just to see how things are moving in my area. Would suspect I'm not alone in doing this.

[notch656a]

Is it normal for people who move to the burbs to go back to the city?

[graaben]

My assumption is that a large percentage of the people who fled NYC/SF in March 2020 are either 1) going to miss the city once it fully reopens and they remember why they lived there in the first place; or 2) their "remote forever" job is actually going to become hybrid and they won't want the 2 hour commute.

[yardie]

Probably not. The majority of the tenants in my building are young professionals and empty nesters. Families with children come through but are gone after a year. Once you're on that track it's very hard to go back to city living. Space is at a premium and kids need space for 18 years. I assume the suburbs are made of people that love suburb living (so much space!) and people with children.

Outside of finance and government there isn't a large sector in most cities. Most businesses are in cheaper, suburban office parks. So beyond the social and cultural aspects there aren't that many advantages to city living, IMO.

[pbuzbee]

I'm sure some people will return to cities, but I feel that many will remain in the suburbs. To me, one of the pieces of this surge in prices is due to millenials reaching prime homebuying age. But millenials are also at prime ages for starting and raising families, so I suspect many will prefer to keep the larger size of their suburban homes.