[shithead]

[...] my hypothesis that the number of bugs can primarily be predicted only by the total lines of code [...] I still haven’t found any studies which show what this relationship is like. Does the number of bugs grow linearly with code size? Sub-linearly? Super-linearly? My gut feeling still says “sub-linear”.

That's an interesting question. I'd bet the other way - for example, a 500 kLOC program having more total bugs than the sum of ten 50 kLOC programs.

But even if the sub-linear hypothesis were true, there's the yield problem that semiconductor manufacturers know well. Suppose you have, statistically, one fatal defect per 500 kLOC. That means it's hard to get a functional 500 kLOC program done. But you could get right eight or nine out of ten 50 kLOC programs ...

[fragsworth]

The 500k loc program will have more bugs, because suppose at best it can be divided into ten 50K components each with the same average number of bugs as the 50k program. The fact that the components must interact correctly will introduce more bugs. How much more is pretty unclear but I am certain it is more.