[rsynnott]

So one problem with thinking about vaccine protection from infection is that it’s hard to get data. In practice, when you see figures on protection against infection (typically these show limited though existent protection re omicron and significant protection re delta for boosted people) those figures are typically based on household infection. Which is kind of a worst case; constant exposure for days.

It may be that protection against infection by casual contact is significantly better, but it’s almost impossible to study that.