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Being overweight or smoking increases the probability that you will need healthcare, but the probability density function (PDF) for that is flat and wide.

When obesity or smoking goes up the increased health care needs are spread out over decades because of the flat wide PDF. There is plenty of time for the healthcare system to expand to handle this before it can become overloaded.

COVID's healthcare needs PDF is tall and thin.

Because of the tall and thin PDF, COVID's strain on the healthcare system is short term.