[ppsreejith]

I’d say profiting off those ideas would probably be a better test (which seems to be what Thiel focuses on i.e profitable secrets). Also, he has many failed investments too so it’s not like his status comes from predicting more wins

[analog31]

Good point, but even that's dicey. It can be hard to objectively link a nebulous broad idea to a specific investment. It makes me think of the entire genre of self serving business hero biographies. Also, the business success can be used to give someone's social ideas credibility, which I'm always skeptical of.

It also creates a bias towards favoring the ideas of people who happen to be motivated by profit. Someone on HN mentioned the HIPPO effect: "Highest Paid Person's Opinion".