[rurban]

Which war? Russia will invade and annect the Donbass, as they did with the Krim, and dozens of times before with most of their neighbors. There will be an election and the Russian majority in the Donbass will agree to the "friendly" annection.

Kiev and the SW industry will stay unaffected, and there's no SW industry in the Donbass, only coalmines.

[rurban]

And actually the war there goes on since 2014. Russian "terrorists" invaded the Luhansk and Donjezk oblasts already and got rid of most of the Ukrainians there. Now it looks like they'll want Mariupol also. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War