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by Someone 1597 days ago
The expected value will be 6³ = 216 days or about 7 months. Where do you get the factor of two from?

Also, “not really in a lot of danger”? Those odds are worse than that of a 100 year old in the USA (they have a life expectancy of over two years)

Certainly, as an additional risk, it’s high.
1 comments
wizzwizz4 1597 days ago
You forget: once you roll three 6s in a row, you're dead, and you don't roll any more. Your expected calculation assumes that people keep rolling after they get 666.

Though I'm not sure where they got their figure from, because there isn't an “expected time to live”; there's a 90% probability to live time, a 5% probability to live time…

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Someone 1597 days ago
There’s a difference between expected value of number of days you’ll survive and the number of days a given fraction of the subjects will survive, but I don’t see either supporting the claim “If you do it every day, you have about 15 months to live”.

  (215/216)^450 ≈ 0.124
, so about one in eight will survive for 15 months or more. The “5% probability to live” time is around day 645 (about 1¾ years):

  (215/216)^645 ≈ 0.0501
the “half will survive at least for” point is around 5 months:

  (215/216)^149 ≈ 0.501
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