[sl8r]

what major institution failed in the early stages of [1] the japan asset bubble or [2] the dot com bubble? Or farther back, the 1840s railroad mania or the south sea bubble?

credit bubbles often pop when some institution can't cover its obligations, but asset bubbles don't seem to need such a failure — and can deflate on their own.

[anm89]

No one ever could have predicted those things! Except for the large number of documented cases of people and institutions who did...

[sl8r]

I'm not saying that crises aren't predictable — I'm pointing out that institutional failure isn't always a leading indicator (as in OP's argument).

[anm89]

sorry if it wasn't clear, I completely agree with you. I just feel like people make that argument in response to what you are saying and it's not a very good one