[digital-cygnet]

I think what you're missing is that they are not avoiding "going rock climbing one more time"; they are avoiding "being a person who habitually rock climbs", because while each excursion is low-risk the aggregate effect will be high risk. It's like smoking -- one cigarette won't appreciably impact your health, but "being a smoker" will.

None of this intended to cast aspersions on rock climbing in particular, just pointing out that a reasonable person, understanding independence of events and not falling prey to any fallacy, could reasonably make this decision based on their personal risk tolerance

[ummonk]

Yes, or more accurately there is a frequency of climbing outings at which the marginal increase in satisfaction from an extra climbing is no longer sufficient to justify the increased risk.